FROM SREBRENICA TO BUCHA

FROM SREBRENICA TO BUCHA

Thirty years after the beginning of the atrocities in Srebrenica that culminated in genocide in 1995, Luka Cekic and I -- on behalf of the IIP -- paid a visit to the Srebrenica-Potocari Memorial Center and Cemetery in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The visit was organized by an engaged young Austrian who is spending his civil service at the Center. We spent an emotional two days talking to relatives of victims who manage the Center, and I signed a Memorandum of Understanding to serve as the basis for future cooperation between the Center and the IIP for the years ahead. In the coming weeks, the IIP will publishing several interviews completed by Luka Cekic during our visit. In this blog, I will try to present some reflections and conclusions -- particularly in light of the recent atrocities committed in Ukraine.

WESTERN  BALKANS - THE EU MUST ACT NOW

WESTERN  BALKANS - THE EU MUST ACT NOW

It is obvious and justified that for the moment, due to the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the attention of the West and particularly the EU is entirely directed toward the war in Ukraine and the threat of future attacks against Moldova or Georgia. In addition, we can anticipate a largely positive reaction by EU institutions to these three countries’ membership aspirations. But how can people in these countries have confidence in the EU’s reaction to their requests and aspirations when the countries of the Western Balkans have experienced so much neglect and disappointment over the years? What will they think about the promises given to them when they realize how many promises given to countries of the Western Balkans have been broken?

Back to the Cold War Era: the War in Ukraine and an Appraisal of the Strategy of Containment

Back to the Cold War Era: the War in Ukraine and an Appraisal of the Strategy of Containment

After a brief period of relative peace, stability, and prosperity, a seemingly all-out war is back in Europe following Russia´s invasion of Ukraine. The impact of the ongoing war is profound by all measures and for all practical purposes. From the outset, a caveat is in order: it is a fact that Russia invaded Ukraine, the victims are primarily Ukrainian citizens, and an invasion of a sovereign country is against a cherished norm of international law -- a war of aggression is a crime against peace. In fact, for Ukrainians, the war started not in February 2022, but way back in 2014.

The End of Non-Alignment in Europe?

The End of Non-Alignment in Europe?

Finland and Sweden have made political decisions to apply for NATO membership. While Turkey has expressed opposition to the idea and, therefore, the accession process will now face some unexpected difficulties, both Helsinki and Stockholm are most likely to succeed with their applications. As a result, their decades-long (200-year-long in the Swedish case) policies of non-alignment will become history. Irrespective of how smoothly and fast the new round of NATO enlargement goes the Finnish and Swedish decisions reflect the already extreme military-political polarisation in Europe and indicate that tensions are likely to grow further.

DER RUSSLAND - UKRAINE KRIEG UND EIN NEUER KULTURKAMPF

DER RUSSLAND - UKRAINE KRIEG UND EIN NEUER KULTURKAMPF

Jeder Konflikt und erst recht jeder Krieg hat auch seine kulturelle und vor allem literarische Dimension. Das gilt sicherlich auch für die Invasion der Ukraine durch Russland. Einerseits steht dahinter der auch kulturelle Anspruch Russlands - aggressiv vertreten durch seinen Präsidenten Putin - an ein Volk, das sie als Kleinrussen bezeichnen. Da kann man die kleinrussischen Schwestern und Brüder auch bombardieren, wenn sie sich nicht freiwillig unterwerfen. Der weißrussische Diktator hat sich lange gewehrt aber vor die Entscheidung zwischen Demokratisierung und Unterwerfung gestellt, hat er sich für Letzteres entschieden. Das kurzfristige Ziel Putins ist sicher die Wiederherstellung des gemeinsamen aber unter seiner Oberhoheit stehenden Reiches von Russen, Weißrussen und Kleinrussen.

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Slovenia’s Elections 2022: The Tide Has Turned

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Slovenia’s Elections 2022: The Tide Has Turned

Slovenia’s most recent parliamentary elections will have a significant impact on politics in the EU and signal a major defeat for its populist leader, Prime Minister Janez Janša. With around 34.5% of the vote, the Freedom Movement won the elections and defeated Janša’s Slovenian Democratic Party, which managed to win only 23.6% of the vote. This year’s elections also had a turnout of 67%, compared to only 52% in the previous elections in 2018. There are several reasons for this.

Russia’s war in Ukraine is about the West

Russia’s war in Ukraine is about the West

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s remark in 2016 that Russia’s borders do not end anywhere reinforced a popular claim about the revisionist nature of Moscow’s foreign policy. Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine seems to be the ultimate validation of this belief. Various explanations of the invasion have been offered, ranging from Russia’s current military advantages over the US, to its fear of further NATO expansion and a perceived security dilemma, to its inaccurate assessment of the political situation in Ukraine and expectation for a quick and painless victory, to Putin even having gone mad. It is likely that all of these explanations played some role. Moreover, alarms have been raised that Russia will not stop in Ukraine but will extend its invasion to the Baltic states. Nothing seems impossible these days, but, as argued below, it might not necessarily be the case. Russia’s war in Ukraine is first and foremost driven by Moscow’s desire to be recognized by the West as an equal power. An attack against the Baltics – fully-fledged members of Western institutions – would not fulfil this objective, but a victory in Ukraine would seem to do so. For Russia, this war is not only about Ukraine: it is also about the West and the global order as such.

EUROPE DAY 2022

EUROPE DAY 2022

This year’s Europe Day on May 9th is different. It is the first time Europeans celebrate the day in the midst of a war on European soil in which Ukrainians and Russians are being killed and large parts of Ukraine are being destroyed. We do not yet know how the conflict will develop in the period ahead. Russia’s war against a sovereign country is also a war against the EU: its post-national cooperation, its support for its neighbors, and its values. So far, the EU has reacted quickly and in unison, and we only can hope that this unity will endure.

DEM FRIEDEN EINE CHANCE - DER MENSCHHEIT EINE ZUKUNFT

DEM FRIEDEN EINE CHANCE - DER MENSCHHEIT EINE ZUKUNFT

Der Club of Rome - Austrian Chapter veranstaltete unter dem Titel „Give Peace a Chance and the World a Future“ eine Jubiläumstagung 50 Jahre nach dem Erscheinen der Studie „Die Grenzen des Wachstums“. Das Jubiläum fiel in eine Zeit, die durch einen Krieg mitten in Europa in größte Unruhe und Unsicherheit gebracht wurde. Und plötzlich war die Herausforderung des Klimawandels und der Energiewende mit den Bemühungen, den Krieg Russlands gegen die Ukraine zu beenden, miteinander verbunden. Ohne dass die Coronaepidemie schon bewältigt wurde, kamen neue Herausforderungen hinzu. Wieder waren es Krisen, die nicht national gelöst werden konnten, sondern einer europäischen und zum Teil globalen Anstrengung bedurften und bedürfen.