Slovenia’s most recent parliamentary elections will have a significant impact on politics in the EU and signal a major defeat for its populist leader, Prime Minister Janez Janša. With around 34.5% of the vote, the Freedom Movement won the elections and defeated Janša’s Slovenian Democratic Party, which managed to win only 23.6% of the vote. This year’s elections also had a turnout of 67%, compared to only 52% in the previous elections in 2018. There are several reasons for this.
First, many Slovenians have had enough of Janša after three terms, as he was responsible for increasing populism and authoritarianism in the country. In addition, Janša has increased his influence over independent media and misused the democratic system in order to strengthen his power and turn Slovenia into an illiberal democracy. His governing style increasingly reflected that of his good friend and ally, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Slovenians’ general lack of trust in the establishment has only increased since Janša most recently became prime minister two years ago. This trend has continued over the last 10 years — not only in Slovenia, but in other countries too.
Who is Janez Janša?
Janez Janša is a Slovenian politician who has been actively engaged in Slovenian politics since the country’s independence in 1991. He was originally a member of the Yugoslav Communist Party but changed his ideology in 1989, when he joined the Slovenian Democratic Union. Janša became a liberal pro-democratic politician, before later shifting to social democracy and ultimately reinventing himself as a right-wing nationalist and populist leader. Some compare his style of politics with that of former US President Donald Trump. Linked to several corruption affairs and earning a controversial political and personal reputation, Janša has had a continuously unstable and unpredictable political career. His growing tendency towards populism and authoritarianism was the main trigger for Slovenia’s public to get more involved in politics in recent years and seek to halt the course of Janša’s government.
The “Balkan non-papers” controversy of 2021
The so-called “Balkan non-papers” – seeming to come out of nowhere in 2021 – had a destabilizing effect across the countries of the former Yugoslavia. Allegedly, the papers were directly linked to the Janša government and were drafted by Janša himself (Janša and the Slovenian government have dismissed these allegations). The papers proposed redrawing borders in the Western Balkans – calling for the region’s territorial reorganization, including the partition of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the unification of Albania and Kosovo to form a single Albanian state. The fact that these “non-papers” – which reopened debates over possible territorial changes in the Western Balkans – may have originated from inside an EU country is more than concerning. The EU and its member states should be advocating for the stability and integration of the Western Balkans by supporting and improving EU enlargement policies, not by tolerating and even authoring papers about territorial changes in the region. As Slovenia is an immediate neighbor of the Western Balkans, it should play an even greater role in the region by reinforcing the EU’s commitment to its Western Balkan enlargement policies and promoting regional stability.
The new face of Slovenia
With a record high turnout, Slovenians have chosen a new leader. Robert Golob – who is the leader of the Freedom Movement – is a green-liberal politician and former company manager who did not seem to have any major prospects for electoral success. Although it was only formed in January 2021, his Freedom Movement party managed to win the largest share of the vote in this year’s elections. In his campaign, Golob addressed the urgent need for a new beginning in Slovenian politics. Golob’s practicality is likely to have a positive influence on his politics while serving as prime minister. On the one hand, he will certainly be a more respected and cooperative partner for the EU. On the other hand, Golob could play a crucial role in supporting and promoting EU enlargement policies across the Western Balkans. In particular, his government could take advantage of Slovenia’s geopolitical position to establish a bridge between Western Balkan countries and the EU. Furthermore, his pro-European and green agenda could change Slovenia’s role within the EU and position Slovenia as a respected advocate for climate action and the rule of law.
With Janša ousted from office, one can only hope that this victory over an authoritarian and populist leader will mark a new political trend in Europe. Still, there is no room to rest on one’s laurels – when the new Slovenian government forms, it will need to justify voters’ confidence and work hard to put Slovenia back on the right track and build its social consensus.
Luka Čekić is a Project Assistant at the International Institute for Peace. He graduated from the German School of Athens and received his BA in Political Science from the University of Vienna. He is currently in his first year of studies in Political Science (MA) at the University of Vienna. His areas of interest include International Politics and Relations, Nuclear Non-Proliferation, Disarmament and Arms Control and Western Balkans.