Peace Blog
The views expressed in the blog are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IIP.
The rapidity of the advance of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the immediate fall of Kabul surprised not only Western observers and commentators lulled into the widespread belief, which became mainstream in the Western information system, that the Afghan regular army would be able to maintain control of the country even after the retreat of the American and Western forces that had trained and supported it for over a decade.
It is not too late to invite the UN to play a bigger role, for example by organizing a regional conference and in positioning peace contingents in accordance with a coalition government in Kabul. Such an UN contingent will not be cheap to put together and maintain. But for peace in this volatile region, it would be much less expensive than the costs of the past war.
Von Experten wird immer wieder die Befürchtung eines „Vakuums“ angesprochen, das von Russland und China gefüllt werden würde. Diese Vorstellung ist sehr kurzsichtig, da weder russische noch chinesische Truppen in Afghanistan einmarschieren werden. Es wäre traurig, wenn die westlichen Werte nur mit Truppen durchgesetzt werden könnten. Alle internationalen und regionalen Staaten werden aber ihren politischen Einfluss geltend machen wollen. Damit sich aber internationale Einflussnahmen im Sinne des Kalten Krieges nicht wiederholt, wird Afghanistan einen glaubwürdigen neutralen Kurs verfolgen müssen.
What is happening now in Afghanistan with the Taliban entering Kabul again, 20 years after they were forcefully withdrawn from power by the US-led NATO intervention in 2001, is shaking up the world stage again. The quick withdrawal of the international troops paved the way for the Taliban to re-take with unexpected speed, 20 years later, the power over Afghanistan which ultimately culminated on Sunday 15th of August 2021 in the escape of president Aschraf Ghani to Uzbekistan and the declaration of victory of the Taliban.
Biden hat sich tatsächlich als präsidentieller erwiesen als vielfach angenommen. Innenpolitisch sind sein Tempo und seine Reformfreudigkeit hoch. Impffortschritt, Infrastruktur- und Sozialprogramme, Einwanderungsreform, teilweises Erlassen von Studiengebühren, Steuererhöhungen sind Vorhaben, die viel Durchsetzungskraft im Kongress erfordern. Einige Maßnahmen etwa in der Infrastrukturreform werden mit einzelnen Republikanischen Senatoren möglich sein.
Die „Gemeinsame Kommission“ soll einen Kompromiss zwischen den beiden Maximalpositionen zu finden. Die USA müssten ihre Haltung aufgeben, dass der Iran zuerst alle Verpflichtungen des JCPOA erfüllen müsste, bevor die Sanktionen aufgehoben werden. Der Iran wiederum müsste darauf verzichten, dass alle Sanktionen aufgehoben werden, bevor er seine Verpflichtungen wieder wahrnimmt.
Obviously, the world sees a struggle between the US and China for the global number one position. Henry Kissinger, who wrote an interesting book „On China“ said recently „We are at the foothills of a Cold War”. And Niall Ferguson - author of a biography of Henry Kissinger said recently: “...this new Cold War is both inevitable and desirable, no least because it has jolted the U.S. out of complacency and into an earnest effort not to be surpassed by China in artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other strategically crucial technologies.”
It appears, that Iran had completely pivoted towards its "Look to the East Policy" after the withdrawal of the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in May 2018 and imposition of new sanctions on Iran by Trump’s Administration. After these developments Tehran lost the hope to normalize relations with the West and marched eastward. Iranian “Look to the East policy” strategy aims to strengthen Iran’s strategic cooperation with Russia and China. Thus, it means that in the era of changing world order Iran has made its choice and it is joining the Sino-Russian political and economic pole. The following question arises: which are the arguments for the abovementioned assumption?
