The new black sea

how the war in ukraine is reshaping the region

The war in Ukraine has led to a profound transformation of both the European security system as well as the entire global order. One of the regions that has felt the impacts of the war most directly is the Black Sea.

The Black Sea spans countries with deep historical and cultural ties that have nevertheless failed to form a fully-fledged region, in part due to the diversity of its countries. The region includes members of both the EU (Bulgaria and Romania) and NATO (Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey) as well as the post-Soviet, Western-oriented states of Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia – all of which have had military conflicts with Russia. In addition, Armenia and Azerbaijan are deeply tied to the Black Sea region through their close economic and security relations with Russia and Turkey, respectively. Finally, Russia remains an important player in the area, although its presence in the Black Sea has decreased significantly after the collapse of the USSR – a reality that the Kremlin has been trying to alter by force in Ukraine since 2014.

The Western political community has often viewed the Black Sea region as an area of both opportunity and potential threat. Its energy resources and ability to function as a buffer zone between the West and the conflicts of the Middle East are cited as assets, along with the desire of several of its states to join the ‘free world.’ Consequently, Bulgaria and Romania joined NATO in 2004 and the EU in 2007, while Georgia and Ukraine expressed similar aspirations in the 2000s. In light of this background, political elites in the West – especially in the US and the EU – aimed to support the creation of a region that would share their liberal democratic values and principles.

At the same time, the security gap between the West and Russia remained an issue of concern. The development of liberal democracies in the Black Sea region was viewed through a security lens in the West, while it became clear by the late 1990s that the initial steps toward democratization in Russia had faltered. In addition, military conflicts in Georgia, Transnistria in Moldova, and later Ukraine challenged the principles of national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Furthermore, Russia’s desire to be seen as an equal power to the West, rather than another member of what the Kremlin perceived to be the US-led hegemonic order, led decision makers in both the West and Russia to perceive their respective interests in the Black Sea region in terms of competition rather than cooperation.

Another major actor in the Black Sea region is Turkey, which has sought to straddle the two camps. A NATO member since 1952, the country has taken a separate – and at times confrontational – course from its transatlantic allies. It formed a situational alliance with Russia in Syria and has been at odds with the US over its support for Kurdish forces. Concerning the war in Ukraine, Turkey has refrained from joining Western sanctions on Russia, although it has closed the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits to Russian warships. Furthermore, Ankara’s support for Azerbaijan in the second Karabakh war in 2020 further enhanced its influence in the South Caucasus. Baku won the war largely thanks to Ankara’s military support, with Turkish troops now deployed in Azerbaijan. Russia and Turkey have jointly monitored the ceasefire after the war in 2020.

Apart from the obvious danger of the ongoing war in Ukraine, other threats to the region loom large, including the spillover of fighting to Transnistria in neighboring Moldova, the proliferation and illicit trade in weapons, human trafficking, and disruptions to global food and energy supplies. In addition, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh and beyond is still very much on the agenda.

Finally, Western sanctions against Russia are hitting the country’s economy hard. With the EU searching for replacements to Russian energy supplies, other countries in the Black Sea region – especially Azerbaijan – are becoming increasingly important partners.

This expert conference gathered academics and practitioners from the countries of the Black Sea region to discuss issues including ongoing military developments in Ukraine, the role of Turkey in the Black Sea region, developments in the South Caucasus, as well as the economic implications of the war, including for energy security.

CONFERENCE PAPER

PUBLIC DISCUSSION

INTERVIEWS