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BELGRADE - MARCH 2022

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BELGRADE - MARCH 2022

I don’t know how often I have visited Belgrade, but it has certainly been many times. My first visit – when the country was still governed by President Slobodan Milosevic -- was on behalf of the City of Vienna, where I was active in “cityforeign relations.” The purpose of my visit was to invite representatives from Belgrade to participate in a cooperative project among cities of Southeastern Europe -- from Vienna and Ljubljana to Athens. During this trip, I remember the words my interpreter spoke about the effect of sanctions: “they keep the poor poor, the rich get richer, and the middle class is destroyed.” I still think there is much truth in these words, but -- as in the present case -- I unfortunately do not see an alternative to sanctions.

THE DANGER OF A SINGLE STORY: FROM UKRAINE TO WESTERN BALKANS

THE DANGER OF A SINGLE STORY: FROM UKRAINE TO WESTERN BALKANS

In the framework of a dialogue on Kosovo and Serbia, I was asked to give an introductory keynote speech. The dialogue, which was organized by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), took place in Vienna at the Bruno Kreisky Forum on the very day that Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia is led by a president who is eager to weaken the West – and especially the EU -- wherever it can, including in the Western Balkans. This creates an additional argument for why the EU should strengthen its engagement in the region and insist on dialogue and cooperation between all groups and countries of Southeast Europe. The basis for such a dialogue must be respect for one other and for the different stories and narratives told by each group. The starting point of my contribution was a speech held by the famous Nigerian-American author Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie.

An attack on Ukraine – An attack on the Western worldview

An attack on Ukraine – An attack on the Western worldview

For many of us it was a terrible shock to realize that Russian President Putin is not only threatening to invade but actually invading an independent country on the basis of lies and distortions. I have been several times in Ukraine over the last years, from Kyiv to Odessa. The IIP visited Kyiv and co-organized summer schools in Odessa. And we had several meetings with the OSCE observer missions in the East of Ukraine. Ukraine was and will remain in our focus.

Putin’s Reactive Escalation: How Regime Architecture Affects Russian Foreign Policy

Putin’s Reactive Escalation: How Regime Architecture Affects Russian Foreign Policy

The current security crisis in Europe lasts already for almost two months. It was ignited by the Russian government that embarked on an impressive military buildup along the border with Ukraine and supplemented it by a list of demands to NATO and the United States, effectively turning this list into an ultimatum. A host of observers attempting to predict the future events are trying to read the mind of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which is notoriously difficult, given his training in secret services.

Die Ukraine und ihre vielen Fronten

Die Ukraine und ihre vielen Fronten

Es ist erstaunlich was sich seit November 2021 zwischen den USA, der NATO und ihren Verbündeten in Europa auf der einen Seite und Russland auf der anderen Seite abspielt. Selten wurde in Europa so offen über die Möglichkeit einer groß angelegten Invasion in einen europäischen Staat berichtet. Die massive Truppenaufstellung Russlands entlang der ukrainischen Grenzen lässt vor allem die USA eine bewaffnete Eskalation befürchten. Im Zentrum des Geschehens steht die territoriale Integrität der Ukraine, die sich seit 2014 in einem andauernden Konflikt mit Russland befindet. Es steht außer Frage, dass Russland 2014 völkerrechtswidrig die Halbinsel Krim annektiert hat und bewaffnete Separatisten im Osten des Landes unterstützt. Die Situation stellt für die Ukraine eine existenzielle Bedrohung dar, doch es wird viel über die Ukraine und nicht mit der Ukraine gesprochen.

The role of Georgia in the post-communist space and challenges small countries like Georgia are facing on a daily basis, being alone in a war against Russia

The role of Georgia in the post-communist space and challenges small countries like Georgia are facing on a daily basis, being alone in a war against Russia

My comments at the Conference on the role of Georgia in the post-communist space and challenges small countries like Georgia are facing on a daily basis, being alone in a war against Russia. What is the key solution, to be pragmatic and wait for further development or is there any chance of improvements of relations?

Diplomacy is the only way to avoid a war with Russia

Diplomacy is the only way to avoid a war with Russia

Once again, the peace in Europe is under serious menace. The conflict between Ukraine and its supporters in the West on the one hand, and Russia and its proxies in the eastern Ukraine on the other, risks degenerating into a devastating war. In the worst case it might potentially trigger even a nuclear exchange with Russia. Even short of such an apocalyptic scenario, a war in Europe would lead to a massive global crisis and thwart any serious multilateral action needed to tackle the truly existential threats of climate change and pandemics.

HAT DIE DEMOKRATIE VERLOREN ?

HAT DIE DEMOKRATIE VERLOREN ?

Nach dem Zusammenbruch des Sowjetimperiums und des europäischen Kommunismus war die Hoffnung groß, dass die Demokratie einen weltweiten Siegeszug antreten wird. Francis Fukuyama, ein prominenter Politikwissenschaftler hat das „Ende der Geschichte“ vorausgesagt: das kapitalistische System in Verbindung mit der liberalen Demokratie wird sich überall durchsetzen. In einem berühmt gewordenen Aufsatz meinte er, dass die liberale Demokratie den „Endpunkt der ideologischen Evolution der Menschheit“ und die „endgültige menschliche Regierungsform” darstellen könnte. In seinem nachfolgenden Buch hat Fukuyama allerdings, selbst Zweifel bekommen, ob die Menschen in einem solchen „endgültigen“ System Befriedigung erlangen könnten und ob nicht neue Konflikte auftreten werden.