Putting an end to Russia’s illegal and unprovoked war against Ukraine is not only imperative for Ukraine. It is an absolute necessity for all European nations, which may face a wide range of unpleasant consequences from the Kremlin’s gambit. It is even important for Russia itself.
This is no less true when it comes to finding a new formula for security for both Europe and the world.
It is already clear by now that this war is a game changer for the world order, both in terms of shifting the balance of power and reshaping international institutions. Russia’s victory would mean the end of the Western-dominated world and a transition of power to the Chinese-Russian alliance. Russia’s loss would signal the restoration of Western unity and its continued ability to shape the results of key international developments. In both cases, the world would return to the realist logic of a global rivalry. International institutions and organizations that proved so inefficient – or even obsolete – during the war will be largely ignored unless they are fundamentally reshaped in accordance with the new security architecture.
Thus, a formula for peace in Ukraine must be a part of a broader solution for regional security. Today, when Russian bombs and missiles are hitting Ukrainian cities, any formula seems extremely difficult to imagine. But some guidelines can be outlined.
So far, a zone of possible agreement seems either too narrow or entirely absent. Russia’s demands for Ukraine’s recognition of the annexation of Crimea and the independence of the ‘DNR/LNR’ as well as its neutrality and disarmament are unacceptable. On the other hand, Ukraine’s expectations of Russia’s surrender and withdrawal from all occupied territories are also beyond reach. A continued military campaign on the ground seems costly, risky, and difficult for both belligerents. Reaching a compromise may take some time, but it’s most likely to lie somewhere in between these positions.
Some issues are fundamental. One is Ukraine’s future security. Russia has long been obsessed over its ‘red lines’ and NATO expansion, without ever being attacked or threatened. Ukraine, after experiencing a full-scale and unprovoked Russian invasion, has all the reasons to be just as concerned about its own future. How can it be secured?
In the world before February 24th, many things were considered impossible, such as overwhelming sanctions against Russia and massive military aid to Ukraine from a consolidated West. The world today is different from the one we lived in a month ago. New solutions are not only possible but necessary.
One entails providing Ukraine with security guarantees in a format different from NATO membership. So far, Ukraine’s neutral (or non-block) status looks like one of the few possible cornerstones of a compromise. But dropping NATO would require some compensation for Ukraine, especially given that no guarantees from Moscow are going to be seen as reliable by Kyiv.
The boldest decision would be to grant Ukraine EU membership. While this was beyond imagination before Russia’s invasion, today it may be the right response to the war dilemma. Joining the EU would provide Ukraine with opportunities to recover, open new trade and economic perspectives, and grant Ukrainians access to the fundamental freedoms of Europe. Even more importantly, this may be the best solution for the EU itself – even from a pragmatic point of view. If it is unable to stop the war, the EU will continue to pay an extremely high price just for being a neighbor to the large-scale military conflict, not to mention possible future geopolitical clashes with Moscow.
An additional option might entail bilateral defense treaties with one or several Western powers. The US has provided security guarantees to dozens of countries since World War II after shifting from isolationism to global leadership. The risks of going to war against Russia one day may be much less than the price of a continued military standoff in the middle of Europe.
If the issue of security guarantees to Ukraine is resolved, the rest will be much easier to make progress on. The withdrawal of Russian troops is, of course, a must. The disputed territories – Crimea and the ‘DNR/LNR’ – can become the subject of subsequent negotiations if both parties guarantee not to resolve the issue by force. Additional space for negotiations may be provided by financial compensations by Russia to Ukraine – the volume of which may also be a matter of discussion – thus making the ‘pie’ broader and easier to divide.
This is just one of several possible ways of finding a solution somewhere in between. The very opportunity to discuss such possibilities is the result of the fierce resistance of the Ukrainian Army, which seems to have come as a complete surprise to the Russian leadership.
The restoration of justice is paramount. An attempt to brutally attack and subdue a sovereign country in the 21st century cannot go unpunished, as it only would welcome other acts of aggression around the world – and further undermine the normative foundations of the world order.
Mykola Kapitonenko, PhD, is an Associate Professor at the Institute of International Relations of Kyiv National Taras Shevchenko University. He is also a Director to the Center of International Studies. He has been invited as a visiting professor to the University of Iowa, and was teaching at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine. Since 2015 Mykola has co-edited UA: Ukraine Analytica. Mykola is a consultant to the Committee on Foreign Policy and Inter-Parliamentary Cooperation of the Parliament of Ukraine. His main research focus is in conflict and security studies; and Ukrainian foreign policy. He is the author of “International Relations Theory” (2022), “International Conflicts”(2009), “Power in International Politics”(2013). In 2021 he was awarded a National Prize of Ukraine in science.