The results of the U.S. presidential and congressional elections came as a shock to many. As Peter Baker wrote in The New York Times: “For the first time in history, Americans have elected a convicted criminal as president. They have returned power to a leader who attempted to overturn a previous election, called for the ‘termination’ of the Constitution to reclaim his office, aspired to be a dictator from Day 1, and vowed to exact ‘retribution’ against his adversaries
If the American people vote for such a man and his followers in the Republican Party, there must be deeper reasons beyond the obvious mistakes of Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, and the Democratic Party. As Francis Fukuyama wrote in The Financial Times, the election result “represents a decisive rejection by American voters of liberalism and the particular way that the understanding of a ‘free society’ has evolved since the 1980s…. Americans were voting with full knowledge of who Trump was and what he represented.”
Is what Donald Trump represents, a reason to be afraid—especially here in Europe? Developments in the U.S. have a direct impact on European policies and trends due to the close economic and political connections between the U.S. and Europe. This pertains not only to the new characteristics and attitudes of American society but also to the political consequences of recent elections. In many respects, the U.S. has become “Trump Land,” and there are also political forces in Europe eager to reshape our societies in a similar way.
Gideon Rachman recently wrote in The Financial Times, under the heading “Trump’s allies think history is going their way”: “There are strong ideological affinities between Trump’s Maga movement and the European populists. They are all anti-migration, anti-woke and anti-“globalist”. They are often sympathetic to Russia and fiercely supportive of Israel. And they are frequently attracted to the same conspiracy theories - about vaccination or George Soros or the “great replacement” of indigenous populations by brown migrants.” European forces of the center—on the opposite side of the political spectrum—must now contend with the political consequences of this shift in U.S. society, as well as the strength that European extremists draw from the recent U.S. election results.
However, the left and liberal forces of Europe’s political center should not simply complain about the losses their allies have experienced in the U.S. Even though it is too soon to fully grasp the implications, it is essential to recognize some facts and consider what lessons can be drawn for Europe. In this regard, Ben Rhodes, former deputy national security adviser to Barack Obama, offered an interesting perspective in The New York Times: “Many voters have come to associate democracy with globalization, corruption, financial capitalism, migration, forever wars and elites (like me) who talk about it as an end itself than a means to redressing inequality, reigning in capitalist systems that are rigged, responding to global conflict and fostering a sense of shared national identity”.
This analysis reflects the mindset of American voters, but it may not be far removed from how voters in Europe feel as well. However, moving from evaluation and analysis to developing convincing strategies for the future is a significant challenge. The political center must begin finding ways to counter extremists, especially since many voters who support extremist parties are not extremists themselves.
In any case, our immediate task as Europeans is to consider how to meet the challenges posed by the new U.S. administration. Let’s focus on the main issues we need to be concerned about—or rather, where we need to be prepared.
We must be prepared for the following:
European right-wing forces may become increasingly fanatic and aggressive, learning from Trump’s stance against “liberal and left elites.”
Support for hegemonic masculinity may grow, as some right-wing forces follow Trump’s example of endorsing sexist and patriarchal ideals.
Societal polarization is likely to intensify, as divisive rhetoric and expressions of hatred from radical factions gain traction.
Advocates of “remigration” and expulsion could feel emboldened in their inhumane, counterproductive policies, seeing validation in the U.S. example.
Close ties between Trump and prominent figures in media and tech, particularly Elon Musk, may present a new threat to democracy through potential disinformation.
The close relationship between Peter Thiel and Vice President-Elect Vance may also be concerning, with their focus on retrogressive values that threaten recent progress in open, liberal societies.
A Trump-led policy of appeasement towards Russia could have detrimental effects, not only for Ukraine but also for other EU member states bordering Russia.
Increased pressure on Europe to boost defense spending rapidly, despite existing budget constraints, may also be on the horizon.
Interference in EU foreign policy, particularly in the Western Balkans, could arise, with support for nationalist forces in nations like Serbia.
Trump’s unwavering support for the Netanyahu government may reduce any pressure on Israel to recognize Palestinian rights.
Continued maximum pressure on Iran could disrupt any efforts to integrate Iran into a new regional security order.
High tariffs on European exports, especially on goods containing Chinese components, may lead to strained transatlantic trade relations.
A rise in competitive protectionism could have a global impact, harming poorer countries most severely.
The “America First” approach may weaken or even dismantle international and multilateral organizations.
Urgent issues like climate change action are likely to be neglected
This blog post draws insights from the recent:
The photograph above was provided by The Now Time.
Dr. Hannes Swoboda, President of the International Institute for Peace (IP), started his career in urban politics in Vienna and was elected member of the European Parliament in 1996. He was Vice President of the Social Democrat Group until 2012 und then President until 2014. He was particularly engaged in foreign, enlargement, and neighborhood policies. Swoboda is also President of the Vienna Institute for International Economics, the Centre of Architecture, the University for Applied Science - Campus Vienna, and the Sir Peter Ustinov Institute.