War in the Caucasus: A Perspective from Armenia

Major Regional War in the South Caucasus: Erdogan’s Geopolitical Ambitious

On July 20, 2020, in an article published at IIP Peace Blog we warned that the unresolved situation of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) issue can escalate into a major regional war if Turkey continues to back Azerbaijan and provoke it to solve the problem through military operations.

In the early morning of September 27, 2020, Azerbaijan launched airstrikes and a large-scale offensive against Artsakh. The capital of Artsakh, Stepanakert, and main settlements are still under heavy bombardment. This time Turkey is also involved, it supplies Azerbaijan with Bayraktar Tactical unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) and, as the Armenian Ministry of Defence informed, Turkish F-16 fighters are also taking part in military operations. Additionally, as French President Emanuel Macron stated on October 1, 2020, during the EU Council meeting, Turkey sent  jihadist terrorists from Syria to Azerbaijan and they also participate in military operations against Artsakh. This information was confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs as well. Armenian military forces are also taking part in the defense of Artsakh, as Armenia is a guarantor of security of Artsakh and currently it sees its national security challenged due to the Turkish involvement and presence of terrorists. The confirmation of these concerns was that the Azerbaijani-Turkish tandem launched missiles and air strikes against the internationally recognized territory of Armenia. The settlements of Armenian Gegharkunik region appeared under bombardment. As a result, several civilians died. Armenians understand Turkish engagement in the conflict as Erdogan’s attempts to complete Armenian genocide and to turn the South Caucasus into another  base of international jihadists controlled by him, which will destabilize also the North Caucasus, Central Asia, Iran, Afghanistan and Chinese Xinjiang.

On October 1, 2020, The US, France and Russia as Co-chair countries of the Minsk group “condemned in the strongest terms the recent escalation of violence along the Line of Contact in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone.” The leaders of three states called “for an immediate cessation of hostilities between the relevant military forces” and urged the conflicting parties to restart negotiations without preconditions. The EU also welcomed this statement and  "urged the parties to recommit to a lasting ceasefire and the peaceful settlement of the conflict". In turn, Turkish president Erdogan announced that for him the statement of Putin, Macron and Trump has “no value” and Turkey will continue to fully support Azerbaijani military actions, which Ankara “regard[s] as ‘two states one nation’”. In sum, Turkey is not interested in stabilization of the situation in the South Caucasus, pursuing, in accordance with its national interest, the following goals:

1.      Turkey uses this opportunity for weaking its historical adversary Armenia with the hands of Azerbaijan, without taking into consideration the fact, that Azerbaijani people are paying a high price. In the battle field, Azerbaijan lost more than 1200 soldiers, 181 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, 12 helicopters, 4 fighter aircraft, 90 UAV, 3 TOS-1 Heavy Flamethrower System, 2 Smerch heavy multiple rocket launcher, etc.

2.      It tries to extirpate democracy in Armenia, as Turkey and Azerbaijan, being autocratic dictatorships, fear that the democratic revolution in Armenia, which happened in 2018, will spillover into their states and the EU’s position will be strengthened in the region, challenging political systems of Turkey and Azerbaijan.

3.      Ankara also weakens positions of Russia in the South Caucasus, which will lose its influence in the region irretrievably, if its last ally - Armenia, is defeated. With this step Turkey also discredits the Russia-lead Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union, as other Russian allies are also following what is happening. If Russia continues to stay aloof, they will try to find other partners and mechanisms for solving their security and economic issues.  By destroying Armenia, Turkey tries to open its way to Central Asia. If establishing presence of radical jihadists in the South Caucasus is successful, Turkey will be able to export radical religious ideologies to the North Caucasus, which can become a serious headache for Russia, as it was during the 1990s.

4.      Getting ground close to the northern borders of Iran, Turkey will be able to press its regional main competitor Tehran and organize anti-Iranian operations in northern provinces of Iran, with the help of “imported” foreign jihadists in Azerbaijan, against whom Iran struggles in Syria and Iraq.

5.      If this scenario runs successfully, Turkey will try to control main routes of China’s Silk Road Economic Belt, namely China-Central Asia-Western Asia Economic Corridor, and raise its influence in Central Asia. This region is bordering China’s province Xinjiang, where Ankara will try to get more leverage to destabilize the situation in its favor. With these steps Turkey will destroy security architecture of Shanghai Cooperation Organization and will create its own, outing from these regions China and Russia.

Actually, Erdogan’s warlike behavior is coming from last developments. When Turkey destabilized the situation in Eastern Mediterranean Sea, Eastern Europe, Syria and Libya,  the international community did not take necessary steps to stop him, because of colliding interests of the West, Russia, EU, Egypt, China, Iran, Greece and other major players. Now Erdogan is sure that he will not be punished, so he organizes his own military unites of jihadist terrorists, who are located in Syria and Libya, and uses them for his own geopolitical ambitious.

Nagorno-Karabakh Childrens' performance in the center of Stepanakert City, Artsakh-pic by M.Sahakyan.jpg

Conflicting Parties and Their Aims: Artsakh, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Jihadists

For the Artsakhi people it is a war for their existence and right of self-determination.

Armenia supports Artsakh as it cannot just watch from the side how Azerbaijan, Turkey and jihadist terrorists annihilate self-ruled Artsakh, which has a population of merely 200.000. The other reason is that Armenia understands that it has its own responsibility for improving regional security and defending democratic values. However, Armenia implements it having heavy casualties among its military personal and civilian population.

Azerbaijan tries to reconquer Artsakh, which has not been part of Azerbaijan before establishment and after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Of course, during the negotiations on Artsakh issue both principles – self-determination and territorial integrity – are on the table, but when Baku tries to solve problem only with the help of military operations, it automatically answers the question, why its territorial integrity cannot be recovered without taking into consideration the principle of self-determination, for which it has only one argument, that the Soviet Union granted Artsakh to Azerbaijan without considering the fact, that the main population of Artsakh are Armenians, who represent another civilization and have nothing to share with the Turkish-Azerbaijani civilization.  By bombing civilian population early in the morning without warning, Azerbaijan proved once again the accusation of Artsakhi side, that in the 80s and 90s the war begun because of national cleansing organized by Baku.

As it was mentioned, Turkey tries to use this momentum for strengthening its geopolitical positions and for exporting its own way of autocratic dictatorship where radical religious ideology plays an important role.

Most of jihadists participate in operations against Artsakh and Armenia for ideological reasons, as they feel civilizational and religious connection with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Some of them fight on the Azerbaijani side for around $ 1500 a month.  This is not the first time when Azerbaijan involves foreign mercenaries in Artaskh conflict. In the beginning of the 90s terrorist groups from Chechnya and Afghanistan were also used by Baku against Armenians of Artsakh. As Shamil Basayev mentioned he and other mujaheds arrived in Azerbaijan to participate in jihad against Armenians.

Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

Actually, now the border of civilizations is being decided in the war, where on one side are Artsakh and Armenia and on the other side Azerbaijan and Turkey, which due to the above mentioned facts involve jihadists in this conflict. It is already not a war between Artsakh and Azerbaijan, it is a conflict where interests of many regional and non-regional actors are colliding. The international community must react to these developments in a much more strict manner and stop the war in the South Caucasus, which can become another center of international terrorism, if sides which involve jihadists from the Middle East are not punished in accordance with the international law. By the mediation of the EU, Russia, US and other constructive players, Azerbaijan, Artsakh and Armenia must be back to principles of Ceasefire Agreement Signed in Bishkek, which Stepanakert, Baku and Yerevan signed in May, 1994.

1.      As Co-chair countries of the Minsk group, France, US and Russia must press Turkey to stop its provocative involvement in the Artsakh issue, they must minimize Ankara’s role.

2.      The EU must impose sanctions on parties, which bring Middle Eastern terrorists to the South Caucasus, because of which jihadists can stand real threat for energy and transport infrastructure of the region. Their appearance in the South Caucasus can stand a reason, that several hundred thousand of people will flee from the region to Europe.

3.      Russia must behave much more decisively as escalation of situation in the South Caucasus will have an impact on the North Caucasus and Central Asia as well. It will destroy economic and security architecture in these regions, where Russia has influence.

4.      China also must be concerned and focused on peaceful solution of this conflict, as jihadists’ presence in the region will threaten Belt and Road Initiative. Strengthening its position in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, Turkey will be able to press Beijing using Xinjiang’s problem as a bargaining chip for getting more benefits. Thus, China needs to take concrete actions for pressing and stopping Turkish advancement to the East.

 

02.10.2020, Yerevan, Armenia

Mher Sahakyan.jpg

Dr. Mher Sahakyan is founder and director of the “China-Eurasia” Council for Political and Strategic Research, he holds a doctorate in IR from China’s Nanjing University. He is the author of the book China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Armenia. Mher is a member of the British Association for Chinese Studies. Sahakyan is a lecturer at Russian-Armenian University and a visiting lecturer at the International Scientific Educational Center of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia.