War in the Caucasus. Nagorno-Karabakh: From a Local Conflict to a Regional War? 🎬

As with all conflicts, the one between Armenia and Azerbaijan has - at least - two sides. On both sides there is some truth and there are some misconceptions and exaggerations. I realized that when in the past I visited both countries as well as now after reading declarations by Armenian and Azerbaijani sides. As the IIP, we cannot and will not evaluate and judge what is true or not. Again, we want to present two positions, but maybe I can first try to state some facts.

The fact is that in Nagorno-Karabakh the majority of the population are Armenians and are supported by the Armenian government.

The fact is that this region belongs - according to international law- to Azerbaijan.

The fact is that Armenia occupied not only the area of Nagorno-Karabakh but also adjacent regions of Azerbaijan, arguing that otherwise the security of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh could not be guaranteed.

The fact is also that this conflict and its renewed outburst plays into the hands of the recently more and more aggressive foreign policy of Turkey. Turkey nowadays considers military engagement and interventions as important instruments for enhancing its regional position.

Speaking about the international community, there is no doubt that Russia is supporting Armenia with whom it has a treaty of mutual military support. Azerbaijan has a similar agreement with Turkey. Therefore, some even see a danger of a direct clash between Russia and Turkey. It will be interesting to see if Russia and Turkey can again find a modus vivendi in supporting opposing sides in the conflict but not engaging in direct battles like in Syria and Libya.

Concerning the domestic situation, Armenia has recently experienced a peaceful revolution and transition towards a more democratic system. In spite of its close ties to Russia, Armenia negotiated a more elaborate economic and political agreement – the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement – with the EU. Such an enhanced agreement could not yet be reached with Azerbaijan, mainly because of the still very autocratic political system totally controlled by Azeri President Ilham Aliyev. However, both countries are part of the EU neighborhood program and the Eastern Partnership.

Armenia has also good relations with Iran, as Iran is afraid that its strong Azeri population may be attracted by the Azeris from Azerbaijan – in spite of Armenia being a Christian country and Azerbaijan being predominantly Muslim. Armenia has also a strong support of its vast diaspora in Russia and the US, but also in France. Turkey whose predecessor, the Ottoman empire, was responsible for what justifiably can be called a genocide, is again very hostile towards Armenia. Russia, the United States and France are the countries with a particularly strong and influential Armenian diaspora and at the same time they form the Minsk Group. The Minsk Group has been tasked with mediating between Armenia and Azerbaijan to find a peaceful solution to this conflict. Turkey has been criticizing this group for years. It would be especially deplorable if Syrian fighters were brought by Turkey to the battlefield in the South Caucasus. From the French and Russian side this presence has been confirmed, but Turkey denies it.

It would be a big step forward if the newly inflamed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan would result in sincere talks to find a peaceful solution. But I do not see a strong interest in either country directly involved to go for a compromise. In addition, with an assertive Turkey, a disinterested United States and fragile relations between Turkey and the European Union, there is not much hope for establishing peace. And Russia has until now not spent much energy on bringing the two sides together. Therefore, I fear, these will be not the last articles about the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Let us hope it can at least be frozen again - for a while. Let us hope that the OSCE will be strengthened again and be able to help to overcome the present hot phase of the conflict. And of course, we need also thoughts and activities which would lead to a longer lasting solution.

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Dr. Hannes Swoboda, President of the International Institute for Peace (IP), started his career in urban politics in Vienna and was elected member of the European Parliament in 1996. He was Vice President of the Social Democrat Group until 2012 und then President until 2014. He was particularly engaged in foreign, enlargement, and neighborhood policies. Swoboda is also President of the Vienna Institute for International Economics, the Centre of Architecture, the University for Applied Science - Campus Vienna, and the Sir Peter Ustinov Institute.