With all the crises in the Middle East, the Eastern Mediterranean and the South Caucasus, one could forget to deal with the problems of the EU’s immediate neighbors in the Western Balkans. The slow progress and the permanence of unsolved issues of course help to forget and overlook this area. But of course not for the IIP, which pays special attention to the youth of that region. And also for the Vienna Institute for International Economics - WIIW, which deals strongly with the economic development of that area, there is no forgetting. And recently, the European Commission published its progress report on enlargement and a proposal for an investment package for the Western Balkans. Reason enough to look closely to the Western Balkans issues and challenges.
Disappointing development or rather non-development
Looking to the Western Balkans, one cannot find many new promising developments and forward looking initiatives coming from the governments of the region. Certainly Covid-19 has also in this region had a negative and aggravating influence on existing problems. But we do not see initiatives to solve existing problems. The dispute between Serbia and Kosovo did not find an improvement, in spite of the US intervention and some documents jointly signed by the two leaders of Serbia and Kosovo in Washington. But these “agreements” were more in the interest of the US and Israel and did not deal with the core problem. In Bosnia Hercegovina there is no real progress towards a common political and economic strategy of the different entities and communities. Montenegro, for the moment, stays in a limbo after the election, without addressing the endemic corruption.
There are perhaps two exceptions from the general gloomy picture: North Macedonia and Albania. North Macedonia has successfully organized elections and established a new, inclusive government, which could bring some progress. For the moment it has to deal with some Bulgarian bilateral demands. Albania seems to satisfy the international community concerning judicial reform and the government has reached some agreement with the opposition. But it is not sure if EU - accession negotiations can really start soon - especially for Albania, there are some doubts in different European capitals.
The recent progress report of the EU Commission is proof of that fragile situation. It mostly speaks about limited progress, when the report mentions the necessary reforms. Concerning the rule of law, which “ is a crucial aspect of democratic transformation and the key benchmark against which the enlargement countries’ progress towards membership is assessed by the EU”, the report states: “credible progress in the rule of law area remains a significant challenge, which often correlates with a lack of political will, continuing existence of certain elements of state capture, limited progress on judicial independence, institutional resistance and an increasingly difficult environment for civil society.” Of course there are national differences in the degree of neglect or of implementation, but there are some cases where very harsh criticisms is put forward. For example, in regard to Serbia, the Commission states, that concerning judiciary and fundamental rights: “there was no progress during the reporting period as it did not implement the recommendations from the previous Commission report.”
The EU Commission speaks also about wide spread corruption and that “ threats, intimidation and violence against journalists are still a source of serious concern” and that “ investigations into and prosecution of such attacks are slow across the region”. The same is true of organized crime, which “continues to be a very serious issue in the Western Balkans.” Representatives of the region are right, there exists a lack of enthusiasm inside the EU for the enlargement process. But developments in the Western Balkans - and of course even more so in Turkey - do not give new incentives for enlargement activities form the side of the EU. The lack of positive news from the region confirms the critical sentiment of EU’s population in respect to accession of countries from the Western Balkans.
Some hopeful aspects
Concerning the investment activities the Commission is also very disappointed, as “the investment climate remained largely unchanged and is characterized by weak rule of law, the lack of adequate enforcement of State aid rules, an entrenched grey economy, poor access to finance for business and a low level of regional integration and connectivity.” The Commission is correct in hinting at these deficiencies. But the pressure of the EU to enhance regional integration was often seen in the region as a pressure to rebuild Yugoslavia, perhaps enlarged by Albania. And one should not forget, that for many, who still lived in Yugoslav times and saw the breakdown of that confederation, there are not always good remembrance to these past times. And it seems that the growing nationalism became much stronger than some nostalgic dreaming of the good times in Yugoslavia.
Anyway, concerning regional economic cooperation, things seem to have developed in the right direction. The issue of integration and connectivity is one, which was also recently taken up by a study by the Vienna Institute for International Economics - WIIW, commissioned by the Bertelsmann Stiftung. The report done by WIIW shows, that the CEFTA, the Central European Free Trade Association which was formed because of pressure from the EU, “contributed to an increased intra-regional trade.” And the Stabilization and Association Agreements (AAAs) with the EU “turn out to be strongly related to the Foreign Direct Investments - FDI from the EU to the Western Balkan countries..... The SAAs are also found to have promoted exports from the Western Balkan countries to the EU.” Overall we can find a stronger integration between the countries of the region and the EU economy on the one hand, but also a strengthening of the regional market, on the other hand. So, at least here we find some progress in both directions, aspired and demanded by the EU.
New incentives by EU to promote Western Balkans development
Understandingly, the EU would like to see even more economic progress and issued an “Economic and Investment Plan for the Western Balkans” parallel to its Enlargement Report, which analyzed the progress or better non-progress in preparing for the future membership. For the EU Commission this plan should help the Western Balkans to “spur the long-term recovery - backed by a green and digital transformation” and by this the Western Balkan countries “should move forward on the EU path.” It is good, that the countries should now be part of the EU Green Deal and also try to reach climate neutrality by 2050, with strengthened efforts by the countries themselves and support by the EU for “decarbonisation, depollution of air, water and soil, circular economy, farming and food production and protecting biodiversity.” That of course requires a strong agenda for innovation and research, which should also be supported by the EU. The climate and green deal agenda and the digital - and especially digital education - agenda of the EU which is supported by a good financial package is certainly helping the countries if they are willing to go that reform path. But we need more, not in money terms but in the form of mutual engagement.
It is my deep conviction, that it would be helpful, if the countries, their governments and the relevant civil societies would be strongly involved in the formulation and implementation of the EU programs - even before membership and its right for participation in the decision making process. The EU should challenge already now all the countries - irrespective how far they have advanced in the accession process - in asking for proposals, how the aims and targets of the EU could be designed and implemented in their countries. They should be forced to act, as if they were members of the EU and asked to stop to play with other partners like Russia, China and Turkey as alternatives to the EU integration. They should have good relations with these countries, but make clear where they see their future. And be open and frank about who helped them primarily- in case of disasters, of the pandemic Covid-19 etc. We need a more active and initiative engagement by the governments and societies of the Western Balkans.
The role of the youth
There are two particular issues, which are not enough thought of by the Commission report and its investment plan. Both concern primarily the younger generation. These issues are migration out of the Western Balkans and the role of the civil society. In general, the EU should not only think about depollution in the framework of the Green Deal, but be concerned about depopulation especially by the younger generation. The EU should work together with the Western Balkan countries on a agenda for “circular migration”. It would be useless to try to prevent emigration from the Balkan region. Some EU countries even try to attract specially skilled people like doctors or nurses from these countries, where they are consequently missed by the local population. What we need is an emigration and immigration with mutual benefits for all countries. People from the region should have the possibility to learn and acquire knowledge and experience in the EU and be able to go back and(!) get adequate jobs in their country of origin. And they could also form a pressure group for structural reforms and for fighting corruption which often prevents the respect and recognition for merit and experience. And they would need an open and common Lana our market in the region. That would be an important support for regional cooperation and integration.
Progress of the countries of the region requires not only an educated and experienced work force, but also an active civil society which is critically following political developments. All the demands from the side of the EU, especially the EU Commission and the EU Parliament, will not result in the necessary reforms and especially in the needed time, if it is not demanded by the citizens. Certainly, leaders of the region - and not only there - do not like too much criticism and demonstrations. But an active civil society-including demonstrations in public spaces - is an essential part of democratization of countries, specially in those, which have been for long time under dictatorship and are still today often autocratically ruled. The support of or adaptation to authoritarian rule and domination does not disappear over night. But it hampers the necessary reforms and modernization. And it prevents a quick path towards the European Union.
The European Union cannot create strong civil societies out of the blue, but it must enhance by all means their activities and have a strong dialogue with the civil society actors - even if this is disliked by the governments of the region. As accession is something for the future, the EU should strongly involve the generations of the future.
Picture: Julian Nyča
Dr. Hannes Swoboda, President of the International Institute for Peace (IP), started his career in urban politics in Vienna and was elected member of the European Parliament in 1996. He was Vice President of the Social Democrat Group until 2012 und then President until 2014. He was particularly engaged in foreign, enlargement, and neighborhood policies. Swoboda is also President of the Vienna Institute for International Economics, the Centre of Architecture, the University for Applied Science - Campus Vienna, and the Sir Peter Ustinov Institute.