A new power balance is emerging in the South Caucasus – especially visible after the Second Karabakh War – whereby Turkey and Russia are simultaneously competing and cooperating in the region. Turkey is Azerbaijan’s staunchest ally and has assisted it militarily in its war effort. Russia, on the other hand, spearheads the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), in which Armenia is a member. However, Moscow has been ambiguous about its support for Yerevan in the conflict with Baku, refusing to back Yerevan militarily in the Second Karabakh War in 2020 and the subsequent Azerbaijani offensives in 2021-2023. With the exodus of Karabakh Armenians in September after Baku’s complete takeover of the territory, Russia’s peacekeeping force stationed in the region has been rendered meaningless. But will Russian forces leave the region? Will Turkey normalize its relations with Armenia now that Azerbaijan has all of Nagorno-Karabakh under its control? What kind of involvement might Russia have in the establishment of a route through Armenia to Nakhichevan? What interest does Turkey have in transport connections in the region? In this episode, we discuss these and other motivations for the continued involvement of Turkey and Russia in the South Caucasus.

Guests:

Mustafa Aydın is a Professor of International Relations at Kadir Has University (Istanbul), and the President of International Relations Council of Turkey. Previously, he worked at Ankara University and Economy and Technology University, and was the Rector of Kadir Has University between 2010 and 2018. Professor Aydın was guest researcher and/or lecturer at Michigan, Harvard, and Athens universities, as well as at Richardson Institute for Peace Studies, the EU Institute for Security Studies and the Institut für die Wissenschaften vom Menschen.

He was member of Economy and Foreign Policy Study Group of the President of Turkey (2003-2009), Co-Coordinator of the International Commission on Black Sea (2010); and Director of International Policy Research Institute (2005-2011).

Mustafa Aydin’s publications include The Levant; Search for a Regional Order (ed., 2019), Eurasia Trilogy (ed. in Turkish, 2008, 2010, 2012), International Security Today; Understanding Change and Debating Security (ed. with K. Ifantis, 2006); Turkish Foreign and Security Policy (2006); Turkish Foreign Policy; Old Problems, New Parameters (2010); and Non-Traditional Security Threats and Regional Cooperation in the Southern Caucasus (2011).

Kirill Krivosheev is an independent foreign policy expert from Russia, focusing on the post-Soviet states. In addition, he observes political developments in Türkiye and Afghanistan, as key neighbors of the former USSR. From 2016 to 2023, he worked as a foreign desk correspondent for Kommersant newspaper, covering elections, protests, and wars, especially the Karabakh conflict. After finishing his tenure at Kommersant, Kirill began writing analytical pieces for the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin as well as other platforms.

Moderation:

Marylia Hushcha, Researcher and Project Manager at the IIP

The episode was recorded on 28 November 2023.