Azerbaijan took full control over the Nagorno-Karabakh region this September, choosing to restore its territorial integrity by force and thus ignoring the previous years of negotiations with Armenia. As a result, hardly any ethnic Armenians remain in the region, with the vast majority having fled to Armenia for fear of ethnic cleansing after months of total blockade by Azerbaijan. Armenia fears military incursion by Azerbaijan within its territory – particularly in its Syunik Province – despite Baku’s claims that it has no interest in doing so. What are the chances that a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be signed? What would its value (and contents) be, considering the persistent lack of trust between the parties? Who could provide security guarantees to Armenia? What will happen to the border demarcation process and the dispute over the transport connection between Azerbaijan and its exclave Nakhichevan? Is the conflict likely to escalate again? In this episode we are talking about the current fast-changing developments around this conflict as well as discuss its roots and decades-long history.
Guests:
Anna Hess Sargsyan is an international affairs professional with extensive experience in peace and conflict studies and peace mediation. Over the course of her career, Anna has designed and supported a number of formal and informal peace processes, as well as developed and led educational programs in the field of peace and conflict studies. Parallel to her practical work, Anna has authored a number of publications. Her research focuses on the impact of geopolitical tensions on the settlement of protracted conflicts, particularly in the OSCE area. Anna was the ACP Head of Conflict Resolution from September 2022 until December 2023, leading the team`s work in dialogue and mediation across the Middle East, Africa and Eurasia.
Thomas de Waal is a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe, specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus region. He is the author of numerous publications about the region. The second edition of his book The Caucasus: An Introduction (Oxford University Press) was published in 2018. He is also the author of Great Catastrophe: Armenians and Turks in the Shadow of Genocide (Oxford University Press, 2015) and of the authoritative book on the Nagorny Karabakh conflict, Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War (NYU Press, second edition 2013). From 2010 to 2015, de Waal worked for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. Before that he worked extensively as a journalist in both print and for BBC radio. From 1993 to 1997, he worked in Moscow for the Moscow Times, the Times of London, and the Economist, specializing in Russian politics and the situation in Chechnya. He co-authored (with Carlotta Gall) the book Chechnya: Calamity in the Caucasus (NYU Press, 1997), for which the authors were awarded the James Cameron Prize for Distinguished Reporting.
Moderation:
Stephanie Fenkart, Direcot at the IIP
The episode was recorded on 28 November 2023.