I am still very much under the impression of the interview with Olena Halushka, a fighter against corruption in Ukraine, about the future status of Ukraine as a candidate for the EU membership. (https://youtu.be/WjBBcr5FlD8) Asked about the future relationship with Russia she underlined, that reconciliation with Russia is only possible after a clear victory for Ukraine and a “deputinization”, demilitarization, denuclearization of Russia, the punishment of all generals etc. Emotionally one can understand this hard and uncompromising line, but is it a way to look forward, even considering all the atrocities committed by Russia in Ukraine? Can Ukraine with this stringent line join a European Union, which is built on reconciliation and cooperation?
A recent poll undertaken by the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR) in selected European countries and interpreted by Mark Leonard and Ivan Krastev shows, that there are two camps how people react inside the European Union to the Russian aggression against Ukraine. For most Europeans Russia is the one responsible for the war - but with different degrees of support. The strongest support for this opinion is represented in Finland, the weakest in Italy. Some, unfortunately, still see the US, the EU or even Ukraine itself as mainly responsible.
Nevertheless, irrespective of this evaluation, there are two groups, one the authors call peace camp and the other they call justice camp. The latter is clearly for full support to Ukraine to achieve victory over Russia. This is the only way to implement justice – especially Poland and Finland are strongly represented in this camp. The other group is also in favor of supporting Ukraine but do not want an escalation – trying to come up with ways to reach a peace agreement. They support a peaceful solution, even at the cost of Ukrainian concessions to the Russia - Italy, Germany but also Romania are in favor of this. This camp is clearly bigger amidst the population in the countries where the poll was undertaken - apart from Poland. Overall, the Justice Camp comprises 22% of the population, the Peace Camp 35%. 20% are swing voters and the rest is undecided. With the war continuing and the increasing problems in gas supply, rising gas and food prices, etc. one could expect that the peace camp is growing and not the justice camp.
The majority of Ukrainians - and especially the political and civil society elite - is definitely part and spokesperson of the justice camp. Nevertheless, Ukrainians must be aware of the strong peace camp in Europe and should not count on a rising support if the war drags on. With Ukraine getting the status as a candidate country for the European Union membership, the division between the peace and justice camp will be also an issue for the EU policies directly. Will the E.U. insist on justice and can it continue supporting and even strengthening its support for Ukraine including heavy weapons? Will the E.U. have enough support of its population for trying to gain unequivocal victory of Ukraine and defeat of Russia? With the recognition of Ukraine as a future member, the E.U. is much more connected to the fate of this country, which will affect the EU much more than in the past.
Personally, I support the positive sign for a future E.U. membership of Ukraine. Already as member of the European Parliament I always argued that Ukraine, as a European country, has - according to the Lisbon treaty - the right to apply for membership. Nevertheless, we should not overlook and neglect the problems of such a step, especially after this dreadful war with the enormous physical destruction and its psychological impacts on its population. Although Olena was quite optimistic about the development of the Ukrainian fight against corruption, it is still not clear how the country will develop after the war and how the political system will evolve, and how quickly the hate against the population of its neighboring country, Russia, can be overcome.
With such a big country joining (and hopefully also Moldavia and later also Georgia and those from the Western Balkans), it will definitely be another EU. Nevertheless, it must be also another EU if it wants to survive and meet the enormous challenges it is confronted with. It must be a Europe with stronger institutions to keep the Union together and the question of a Union with different speed of integration for different countries must be put on the agenda again. The European Union must adapt in order to prevent an overstretching. History knows several cases where great powers had experienced a fall after an unprepared rise.
The forthcoming decision of the European Council will have strong consequences. The direction the Union is taking will be risky if the Union is not working hard to keep it united and to implement the necessary reforms. Most importantly, the Union must find a way to keep the justice camp and the peace camp in its population in balance and in an open dialogue. The EU needs people from both camps on board. Otherwise, it will fall apart.
Dr. Hannes Swoboda, President of the International Institute for Peace (IIP), started his career in urban politics in Vienna and was elected member of the European Parliament in 1996. He was Vice President of the Social Democrat Group until 2012 und then President until 2014. He was particularly engaged in foreign, enlargement, and neighborhood policies. Swoboda is also President of the Vienna Institute for International Economics, the Centre of Architecture, the University for Applied Science - Campus Vienna, and the Sir Peter Ustinov Institute.