This was the permanent question we got as we - the Balkan group organized by the IIP, Karl Renner Institut and the ÖIIP - visited Bosnia- Hercegovina in the last days. This is the fear of many people, more than two decades after the “Bosnian” war ended! For me, who visited the country the first time during the war and many times after the Dayton Peace Agreement was signed, this is particularly sad.
Milorad Dodik is enhancing his destructive policy
The Serb leader, representing the Republika Srpska in the Presidency, Milorad Dodik threatens the present constitution of the country and wants to undo all the changes of the past years, which strengthened the common state institutions. He took the law about recognition of the genocide of Sebrenica, imposed by the former High Representative, Valentin Inzko, as an opportunity to start to destroy the -anyway insufficiently - working institutions of Bosnia - Herzegovina. He wants to return to the original Dayton agreement with all its weakness.
But his unilateral destruction of the present constitution is clearly illegal. It is a consequential step of his long time policy of challenging the common state. There is a broad consensus amongst his critics, that he is going to extreme steps now, because he fears to lose the next elections in autumn 2022. This would not only be a political disaster for him, but also a personal disaster. There is a widespread opinion of him being personally engaged in a lot of corruption. In case of losing the next elections and of losing his immunity, he would have to appear before court and would fear being sent to jail.
Dodik has strange allies
Milorad Dodik is the most obvious destructor of Bosnia-Hercegovina, but he is not the only one. The other two leaders of the ethno-nationalist parties, Bakir Itzetbegovic of the main Muslim party SDA and Dragan Jovic, the leader of the Croat Party HDZ, are also responsible for the stalemate in Bosnia- Hercegovina. They were through all the last years concentrated mainly on defending “their” community and not on building a common state for all citizens, irrespective of their ethnic origin. The “citizen principle” is not a concept they could enhance and agree upon. In some way all these ethno-centric forces support each other. Only now when Milorad Dodik is going too far, there is some concern about the cohesion of the country - but not too much. There are exceptions like the Croat member of the state Presidency, Zelko Komsic, the multi ethnic parties which are mostly in opposition but in government for example in the Canton of Sarajevo and of course the civil society.
Dubios role of the International Community
And the International Community and in specific the EU? Well they bear not the main responsibility for the present situation, but they are not innocent. They were too much oriented on those leaders, who were not interested in change. They were not strongly criticizing the lack of the fight against corruption and naming and shaming those who were deeply involved in corruption themselves. They did not raise the issue of many young people leaving the country, not only because they have no jobs or are badly paid, but also because they see no hope for themselves and especially for their children. This at least is the widespread opinion of the cicvil society representatives and activist we met in the last days - in Sarajevo, in Jajce and in Mostar.
Lack of reconciliation
And overall there was no systematic system of reconciliation set up inside the Dayton agreement, which ended the war. And it was also not a priority of the EU or a precondition to come closer the European Union. And when the High Representative Valentin Inzko imposed the law on recognition of the Sebrenica genocide, it stirred more unrest, than it helped to recognize the genocide and to foster reconciliation. This one-sided act gave the Serb leader Milorad Dodik the chance to even strengthen his secessionist rhetoric and also activities. And this in times where he was losing attraction, because of many corruption cases becoming obvious. So it was at least the worst time to impose that law, but anyway imposing genocide recognition from the outside must fail.
Milorad Dodik of course chose also his actions just now, because of many international uncertainties. The new Biden administration is still in being set up. Inside the EU there are leaders like Victor Orban, who is not interested in multi - ethnic and multi - religious societies. The EU Commissioner for Enlargement coming from Orban’s party is not too critically on the lack of democratic developments in the Balkan region. Poland is also weakening the EU’s position in respect of human rights. Russia is following a policy of creating or at least supporting conflicts in the “Western” hemisphere.
A way out must be found
Is there a way out of the present crisis? Well one proposal we heard from a Serb opposition politician from the Republika Srpska is to suspend the “Inzko” law for a limited time - maybe two years - and ask the parliamentarians to find a formulation for themselves. The timeframe should make it possible for the new Parliament, which will be elected in next October, to have time to find a text, where a majority could agree upon. I find this a good idea. It will not solve all the important issues Bosnia- Hercegovina is for the moment not dealing with. It will certainly not prevent Milorad Dodik to find new ways of torpedoing the common state. But he would lose this specific, fro may Serbs emotional, “reason” to continue his secessionist actions. And it would give the democratic and multi-ethnic forces time to prepare for elections which could change the course of the country.
Anyway - beyond the present crisis- the EU in specific must help all those who are fighting for a democratic and openminded Bosnia- Hercegovina. It must speak a clear language against all those who are blocking reforms and stabilize the ethnic oriented structures and policies. Dodik stands in the fist line of those forces and he is now particularly active in his destructive policies. But he is not alone.
P.S.: On these pages you will find in the next weeks more comprehensive reports and analyses of our visit. This is just a brief comment because of the urgency of the present crisis.
Dr. Hannes Swoboda, President of the International Institute for Peace (IP), started his career in urban politics in Vienna and was elected member of the European Parliament in 1996. He was Vice President of the Social Democrat Group until 2012 und then President until 2014. He was particularly engaged in foreign, enlargement, and neighborhood policies. Swoboda is also President of the Vienna Institute for International Economics, the Centre of Architecture, the University for Applied Science - Campus Vienna, and the Sir Peter Ustinov Institute.