The Changing World Order, the SCO, and Sino-Indian Border Clashes
In general, we are witnessing the continued destruction of the unipolar world order that was created after the collapse of the Soviet Union. As a result, the US is no longer the main player on the world stage, as China, Russia, and India have started to play particularly important roles in the international arena. Furthermore, over the presidency of Donald Trump, we cannot speak of a united West (the US, the EU, and the UK), as there are many contradictions between these sides regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, US protectionist policies and tariffs, the US withdrawal from disarmament treaties, environmental issues, and disputes on further cooperation in NATO, among others.
It is worth mentioning, that tensions between China and the US as well as between Russia and the West were already escalating before the Covid-19 outbreak, but the pandemic has functioned as another “political-informational tool” that each side leverages against others. In fact, the geopolitical and geo-economic situation began to change in 2013 when China launched its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), through which it is creating a political and financial pole that is independent from the West. At the same time, Russia has started to rally its allies (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan) inside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The Ukraine crises and Western sanctions have given an added impetus to Russian decision-makers to speed up their pivot towards Asia. Russia and China have opted for cooperation over competition in the Eurasian mainland, as they announced about the cooperation of the EAEU with the Chinese BRI. Moscow and Beijing have significant experience in collaboration on a multilateral level. One of the best examples is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which the two powers founded in 2001 alongside their partners to maintain and ensure peace, security, and stability in Central Asia and promote effective cooperation in politics, trade, economics, research, technology, energy, transport, and other areas. Currently, the SCO on the one hand faces new challenges due to the Covid-19 outbreak, the Sino-Indian border clashes, and the changing world order, but on the other hand it can use these challenges as opportunities and play an important role in new developments as a platform for strengthening peace and cooperation.
In the era of a changing world order, there are two camps of competitors: a Sino-Russian tandem and the West, which will both compete with each other to expand their geopolitical roles around the world. Here it is worth discussing India specifically, which became an SCO member in 2017. India has the power to change the balance of the power between the aforementioned competitors depending on which side it chooses. India’s economy is growing rapidly, and it has the second biggest population in the world after China. A continuation of the recent clashes between Chinese and Indian troops on the border has the possibly of creating a volatile situation not only in the region but even a war between these two great powers, which, given that they are both nuclear-armed states, could generate catastrophic consequences for entire world.
It is still not clear whether India might escalate the situation on the border to deflect public attention from the situation concerning the outbreak of Covid-19 or whether it is trying to send a message to the US that the two powers could create a common front against China. From my point of view, China must try to find ways to resolve its outstanding problems with India so that it does not align with the US camp. I believe that India also needs to carefully calculate its position, as worsening relations with China or a war with this superpower would destroy its economy and halt its economic growth. New Delhi must also take into consideration that the Chinese army is much stronger and Chinese infrastructure up to the Sino-Indian border is developed better than that of India. Either way, both sides would lose from any such confrontation. In addition, the SCO would unquestionably suffer from this confrontation, as both China and India are members. The SCO should try to implement concrete steps to stop this dangerous confrontation.
The Economic Impact of Covid-19 and the Spread of Disinformation
Covid-19 has damaged the economy of the entire world, and it has caused the biggest “earthquake” in the economic sector since the global economic crises of 2008. In short, the impact of Covid-19 on the SCO affiliated states has been approximately equal. The outbreak of Covid-19 destroyed economies, created unstable political situations in some countries, triggered security issues, and negatively impacted trade and economic relations between SCO member states. For instance, because of the lockdown of most parts of the Chinese economy in the beginning of 2020, the price of energy dramatically decreased, which had and will continue to have a negative impact on the economies of several SCO member states that depend on export revenues from energy sources for their national budgets. More broadly, due to the Covid-19 outbreak, the borders between the countries affiliated with the SCO were closed, which had a negative impact primarily on the following economic areas of these states: energy production, trade, industry, tourism, and transportation.
The spread of disinformation about the origin, treatment, and spread of the virus has posed another problem. As we have seen, the US sought to use the pandemic as a tool against China. Both Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo called Covid-19 the “Chinese virus,” which was not acceptable for the international community, and they tried to blame China for not publishing information about the outbreak on time, which is not supported by facts as there were several announcements by the World Health Organization that China released information in a timely and correct manner. In turn, speaker of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that they have some suspicions that the virus was spread in Wuhan by American military units who were participating in military world games there in October 2019. This information was also not officially confirmed.
There are also some organizations, websites, social network pages, and media agencies that are spreading disinformation about Covid-19 among citizens of SCO affiliated states and claiming that the virus does not exist or that it was invented to sell medicine and masks or to spread vaccines across the world for other “purposes” than countering the virus. There are also claims that the main aim of “spreading” Covid-19 is to put microchips into the bodies of all citizens to make the “work” of police and governments easier in observing their citizens. The spread of this kind of disinformation also creates difficulties for the governments of SCO affiliated states in their fight against the outbreak. The SCO should try to unite affiliated states to jointly rebuild their economies and share their experiences with one another, and it should meanwhile take steps to organize a collaborative struggle against the continued spread of disinformation.
Policy Recommendations for the SCO
1. The SCO should start mediation to ease tensions between China and India.
2. The SCO should provide a platform for China and India to engage in negotiations and help to find a peaceful solution to their territorial disputes.
3. The SCO should send observers to the border between China and India to provide assistance in preventing and responding to border incidents.
4. The SCO should establish a group composed of SCO staff and scholars from affiliated states to create a strategy for the joint struggle against Covid-19 disinformation.
5. As traditional trade relations between SCO affiliated states were damaged and there are continued limitations because of the pandemic, the SCO should promote electronic commerce.
6. The SCO should create special online exhibitions where affiliated states can introduce their products and improve trade relations with one another.
Dr. Mher Sahakyan is Director of the"China-Eurasia" Council For Political and Strategic Research, Armenia; AsiaGlobal Fellow 2020/2021, Asia Global Institute, University of Hong Kong, China; and Advisory Board member of the International Institute for Peace, Vienna, Austria.
Photos courtesy of Mher D. Sahakyan