The ongoing clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan started on July 12th in Tavush Province in Armenia and across the border of Tovuz District in Azerbaijan. Within four days of the outbreak of the conflict, both sides were already using heavy artillery, tanks, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Russia, the EU, the US and the OSCE Minsk Group have called for both sides to cease fighting and start negotiations. Russia also stated that it is ready to play the role of mediator if need be. In turn, the Turkish government and President Erdogan announced their support for Azerbaijan and issued threats against Armenia. Some Turkish sources have reported that Turkey sent its F-16 fighters to fly near the Turkish-Armenian border. The Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs answered in a strict way, stating: “With its approaches, Turkey is a security threat for Armenia and the region, and broad regional and international cooperation is needed to counter it. It is noteworthy that in 21st century, Turkey builds its policy in our region on the traditions of kinship, justification of the Armenian Genocide and the impunity of that crime.” Armenian SU-30 SM fighters started intensively patrolling Armenian skies and S-300 anti-aircraft missile system launchers were placed near the Turkish border.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijani military troops are trying to gain new positions in Tavush Province by attacking Armenian military positions, which were modernized after the 2016 war. As a result of these operations, the Azerbaijani side reported heavy casualties. General Major Polad Gashimov, Colonel Ilgar Mirzoyev, and 13 military servicemen from the Azerbaijani army were killed. Armenia has also had heavy loses, as Major Garush Hambarzumyan, Capitan Sos Elbakyan, and junior sergeants Smbat Gabrielyan and Grisha Matevosyan were killed in armed clashes on the border. The military equipment loses of Azerbaijan up to the evening of July 16th were 1 tank, 14 UAVs, and an artillery system. Azerbaijan announced that it could down an Armenian UAV, which was not confirmed by Armenia. Having so many casualties without territorial gains, the Ministry of Defence of Azerbaijan threatened to launch a missile strike on the Armenian Metsamor nuclear power plant. An additional interesting moment was that before this announcement, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov resigned from his post. These kind of developments are ongoing in the South Caucasus, and in this article we will try to introduce possible scenarios and make recommendations for finding ways for peace.
13th century, Haghartsin monastery, Tavush Province, Armenia
Possible Scenarios
Scenario I:
If Turkey tries to involve its military in the war against Armenia in support of Azerbaijan, Armenia can ask for military help from its close ally Russia, especially as the 102nd Russian military base is deployed in Armenia. It could withstand a long-term regional war that could involve other powers and also threaten the peace and security of the entire world.
Scenario II:
If Azerbaijan tries to implement its threat to strike the Armenian nuclear plant located in Metsamor, it would instigate the beginning of a nuclear disaster that would have significantly negative impacts on Armenia and neighboring states. In fact, it would be similar to a nuclear war, and Armenia will have to strike back with its Iskander ballistic missiles, which will ruin Azerbaijani infrastructure.
Scenario III:
The international community decisively pushes both sides to commence negotiations and condemns any attempt to strike the nuclear plants of either side, stipulating that this kind of threat can be described as nuclear terrorism and as such will not be accepted. The UNSC adopts a resolution that will put an end to the military clashes and impose an arms embargo on both sides. Peacekeeping units are deployed to the borders of both sides as well as in Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh) until both sides find a way to resolve border disputes in a peaceful manner. A special mechanism must be invented and enforced through which any side that initiates military action will be punished by UNSC sanctions.
It is true that democratic states do not go to war against each other. The EU must continue its constructive role through which it is helping to implement the democratic transformation of the states of the South Caucasus, aided by the help of the two democratic states in the region.
It has also been very interesting to follow the protests that were taking place in the center of Baku on July 15. At first, thousands of protestors called for President Aliyev to continue a war against Armenia and not stop the military offensive started by Azerbaijan in the previous days, but when protestors started to speak about social and economic problems and issues related to the outbreak of Covid-19, police began to use force to diffuse the masses. In fact, this kind of protest could provide a good starting point for the transformation of the movement into a pro-democracy campaign, which could bring about changes in the country. As a result, if all countries in the region are democratic, it will be easier to solve ongoing problems without war or violent conflict.
Conclusion
All the above scenarios are possible if we take into consideration the fact that the current world order is changing and the South Caucasus have the potential to serve as a battlefield between Russia and Turkey, which are both competing to increase their influence in the Middle East and the South Caucasus. Turkey might seek to escalate the situation in the region by challenging Russian positions and, as a result, forcing Russia to chose between Armenia and Azerbaijan. For this reason, perhaps it would not fight against Armenia in an open way, but it might still send weapons to Azerbaijan and relocate its troops under the Azerbaijani flag and uniform, as happened in the 1990s war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
A new total war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the time of the Covid-19 outbreak would be a disaster for both nations, and here the question arises: do we have a responsible international community or not? If yes, it must immediately take following actions. First, there must be firm opposition and a concrete condemnation of threats to strike nuclear plants, which could lead to catastrophic consequences. Second, the international community must take into consideration the steps that are recommended in Scenario III of this article, which means preventing military conflict and deploying peacekeeping units in order to help build peace and security in the South Caucasus.
Dr. Mher Sahakyan is Director of the"China-Eurasia" Council For Political and Strategic Research, Armenia; AsiaGlobal Fellow 2020/2021, Asia Global Institute, University of Hong Kong, China; and Advisory Board member of the International Institute for Peace, Vienna, Austria.
Cover photo: Sardarapat monument, Armenia
Photos courtesy of Mher D. Sahakyan