Politically speaking, Belarus is exceptional in many ways but oftentimes, unfortunately, not in a positive sense. It is the only country in Europe that still has the death penalty as the highest form of punishment. Until the tightening of the authoritarian regime in Russia – or indeed even in Hungary – it was infamously referred to as the ‘last dictatorship in Europe’. And very recently, when the coronavirus pandemic hit the world, Belarus refrained from taking any measures to prevent or slow down the spread of the virus on its territory. The latter factor became the last straw for many Belarusians who have now decided to publicly express their discontent with the way the country has been run for over a quarter of a century now. With the presidential elections scheduled for early August this year, does Belarus have a chance for change?
The short answer would probably be no. It is unlikely that current President Lukashenka, who has ruled the country for 26 years already and subjugated the entire state system to his personal power, would all of a sudden allow for free and fair elections and voluntarily leave office if another candidate receives more votes. The state apparatus has already started repressive measures in order to limit the room for action by prospective candidates who are rapidly gaining popularity. Activist and popular blogger Siarhei Cichanouski has been imprisoned, while his wife (who declared she would run for election) has received threats to her and her children if she proceeds with campaigning. Another ‘candidate for candidate’ – since the registration of presidential candidates has not officially been completed yet – Viktar Babaryka as well as his son Eduard were detained on June 18th. They are now held in the KGB. Having considered the possibility of his imprisonment, Viktar Babaryka had recorded a video address that was released after his arrest. In his statement, he suggests initiating a referendum in order to change the constitution back to its original version of 1994 (the constitution was changed by the incumbent president throughout the 1990s and early 2000s to extend his powers; it also effectively ended the true separation of powers in the country).
Political repression and suppression of civic protest have been commonplace in Belarus. They happened during the 2006 and 2010 presidential campaigns and then again in 2017, when thousands of Belarusians, including citizens of an apolitical nature, took to the streets across the country to protest against the so-called ‘parasite tax’ – a fine imposed on unemployed citizens in order, as the authorities argued, to ‘encourage’ them to seek employment. In reality, it was just another tool to extract extra cash from the population to support the unreformed and crumbling Belarusian economy, which has largely lived off loans and subsidies from foreign actors since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The protests were violently suppressed by the police and security forces, and hundreds demonstrators were detained. The previous presidential elections in 2015 were relatively calm. This is due to the fact that authorities were in the process of normalization of relations with the West. Therefore, they allowed for more space for civic action and released all political prisoners. This maneuver proved useful, and in 2016 the EU and USA lifted the majority of sanctions previously imposed against Belarus.
What changed in 2020?
The weakening economy, lack of proper social welfare - despite the claims of the authorities - and the increasingly different images of the Belarus on state television and the one outside the window have been generating disappointment and frustration over the years. These growing pressures were triggered by the global Covid-19 pandemic. The authorities have completely ignored the seriousness of the coronavirus and have refused to order any measures to contain its spread. The president called it ‘psychosis’ and as a remedy suggested ‘vodka, sauna and tractor’. It is true that the weak Belarusian economy could not handle even a partial lockdown. At the same time, the government ignored even the most basic and cheap measures and never reported the true death toll from the virus. Belarusians have felt that they have been stripped off their human dignity and that their lives are not seen as worth saving. This has indeed become the last straw.
Citizens have started gathering at rallies for YouTube blogger Siarhei Cichanouski (now in prison), who travelled across the country interviewing ‘ordinary citizens’ about their daily problems. His only demand in the campaign is to remove the current president. This message appeals to many Belarusians these days. Even in the absence of any independent professional polling, it certainly feels that, for the first time in years, President Lukashenka does not enjoy an electoral majority. While it is estimated that his popularity now stands somewhere below 30%, a meme about ‘Sasha 3%’ has now spread across social media.
Another interesting characteristic of this election is that dismay with the situation came not only from the masses but also from the elites. Two of the most popular presidential hopefuls actually come from the Belarusian establishment. Viktar Babaryka was the head of one of the largest banks in the country and left the post just this May to run for president. Another candidate is Valery Capkala – former Belarusian Ambassador to the USA and Mexico. Within Belarus, he is famous for founding and directing the Hi-Tech Park – a Belarusian version of Silicon Valley – probably the only successful project that has been supported by the Lukashenka regime over the last years.
Is change possible?
Despite the unprecedented wave of activization and politicization of an otherwise apolitical Belarusian society over the past two months, the chances for a change of the president are very slim. Lukashenka will not give up power easily. The state apparatus - and especially the security services - are powerful enough to halt any public discontent, even if it further intensifies. However, the situation is currently changing from day to day, with more detentions, arrests, and violence seen in cities and small towns across the country. It is indeed becoming dangerous and scary. Many people who took to the streets these days have never experienced the state’s repressive methods before and are therefore genuinely outraged with the injustices and brutal force of the police.
While some experts suggest that the state apparatus is no longer a monolithic structure in terms of its loyalty to the regime and that exhaustion with how things are being managed is also widespread among the nomenclature, this is not yet a split that could lead to the breakdown of the current system.
Another five years of the same?
Thus, Lukashenka is likely to stay in power for another five years. But however the election day turns out - with or without mass protests and violence against the citizens - his next term will not be the same. The president will lack legitimacy and public support. The election fraud will be more evident than ever before, since this time it is not 20% that will be ‘added’ on top of the real majority that Lukashenka previously enjoyed. This lack of support inside the country will be coupled with a serious conflict with Russia and a cooling attitude in the West, where it took years to come to terms with the authoritarian regime in Belarus and start the normalization process just some years ago, only to witness another wave of brutality and disrespect to Belarusian citizens in 2020.
The change that the events of the past couple of months have already brought about in Belarusian society is the realization by Belarusians of their own power and capacity for mutual support in the face of the state authorities as well as the pandemic. Civil society has overtaken the government’s role in helping medical personnel and covid-19 patients to tackle the virus. Doctors and nurses who spoke out about problems in the handling of the situation by the medical system and were fired or censured for their criticism have received public support, both morally and financially. This sense of unity is very important for future political action, and the feeling of solidarity and being ‘in one boat’ must be preserved. To sustain this momentum for the next five years will be a much harder task than it has been to mobilize it in the past few months (and it remains to be seen how it will develop in the next weeks before the August 9 election). All three most popular campaigners, namely Babaryka, Capkala, and Cichanouski, will need to nurture the energy they have managed to gather throughout this short period of time. It will certainly be challenging, especially considering the uncertainties about whether these new politicians will be imprisoned. Nevertheless, Belarusians are likely to stay much more politicized than they were before. This also means that messages from foreign actors will be listened to more carefully and discussed more broadly in society. Thus, the EU needs to take an unambiguous stance on Belarus and support whenever possible the forces striving to bring about change. Any sort of support should not be underestimated, including expressions of solidarity and a higher interest in what is happening inside the country and to its people.
Marylia Hushcha is a Research Assistant at the International Institute for Peace in Vienna and is a board member of Think Tank Ponto. She previously worked at Pontis Foundation in Slovakia, where she managed a capacity-building project for NGOs in Russia. Maryia has completed training and fellowship programmes at the United Nations Office in Belarus, the European Academy of Diplomacy in Warsaw, and the University of San Diego. She holds a Master’s degree in European Studies from Comenius University in Bratislava.