COVID-19 and Democratic Backsliding

Political leaders around the world are targeting mass media by using the COVID-19 pandemic to concentrate power and limit democratic governance. The result has been an erosion of democratic norms and structures that could last for years to come.

President Donald Trump has criticized American media for promoting “fake news,” for simply asking basic questions during his press briefings. In his search for scapegoats, he blamed former President Barack Obama and the World Health Organization (WHO). Trump has even stated, “I don’t take responsibility” for the federal government’s initial lack of a response and accused opposition Democrats for using the coronavirus as “their new hoax.” 

Trump has also made moves to concentrate political power in the White House. He has fired the independent watchdog overseeing federal agencies responding to the pandemic. Before the outbreak, his right-wing media supporters blamed China and the Democratic Party for boosting the crisis to score political points with supporters during the campaign season.

Trump’s actions are consistent with those taken by other leaders who are combining media tactics and COVID-19 to erode democratic checks and undermine norms. 

President Aleksandar Vucic of Serbia imposed very strict measures in response to COVID-19 in order to prevent the spread of the coronavirus and what he deems “fake news.” These include closing the border, bypassing the parliament, banning the eldery from leaving their homes, and ordering the police to enforce a curfew. 

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has ignored science and referred to COVID-19 as a “measly cold.”  While he initially attacked journalists for instilling panic to undermine him, he has taken measures to impose very restrictive measures. Facebook even had to remove a video of Bolsonaro falsely stating that hydroxychloroquine was a proper treatment for coronavirus. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erodogan has arrested people critical of the government’s response to COVID-19. In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte approved a shoot to kill order against those he accuses of questioning his quarantine measures. Putting Mexicans at risk, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) dismissed COVID-19, resisted social distancing measures, and even encouraged Mexicans to attend fiestas, go out to eat, and shop.

One of the most significant and far-reaching power grabs was made in Hungary, as the parliament approved measures giving Prime Minister Viktor Orban powers to rule by decree. This is part of a process that was initiated in 2010 when Orban won power. In the last ten years, he and his political party, Fidesz, have amended the constitution to transform the media into a government mouthpiece, eroded the independence of the courts, and expelled Central European University due to its affiliation with George Soros. The consolidation and control of Hungarian media outlets has been facilitated by Orban’s support for giving wealthy businessmen and powerful oligarchs aligned with the government the ability to control the news.

Since the outbreak of the virus, Orban’s government proposed laws that have absolutely nothing to do with controlling the outbreak. For example, Orban has sought to make it illegal for people to change their gender identity. With powerful nationalist sentiment on the rise and with much of Europe still combating COVID-19, the EU has thus far resisted clamping down on Hungary.

Such moves are part of the populist trend of questioning the roles played by knowledge experts who counsel shutting down everyday activity to combat the coronavirus. To maintain their positions of power, these leaders are likely to double down on their strongman-like tactics and continue undermining sound advice from health officials and economists.  

At the end of March, Trump and Orban benefitted from slight bumps in their popularity. But while Orban’s support seems to be more sustained given the stoking of nationalist sentiment, Trump’s bump in the polls quickly dissipated following the passage of the multi-trillion-dollar relief package. More problematic for Trump is this may be the first crisis that controls his political fate. Although this could change at any moment, Biden has the political advantage in key states. More likely than not, Americans will judge Trump in November based on whether they lost their jobs, health care, or economic future.

Make no mistake - serious damage has already been done in established Western democracies. COVID-19 has led established democracies to cancel elections. In the US, individual states have postponed presidential primary elections, and, in the UK, local elections have been rescheduled. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has delayed his trial on political corruption and Israeli domestic intelligence has been granted considerable surveillance powers. The government in Montenegro has even published the names and addresses of Montenegrins who ignored quarantine measures.

With the EU seeking to maintain its supranational integrity in the wake of Brexit and the US retreating from defending democracy under the banner of America First, a void is developing that others are hoping to fill. Russia can take advantage of the crisis by expanding its disinformation campaign and hybrid tactics to cause further chaos and fissures between the US, the EU, and NATO. China has already used the fall in infections inside the country to compete with the EU and NATO and deliver aid to European countries, in particular Italy and Serbia.

Well before COVID-19, trends showed a significant deterioration in civil liberties and civil rights around the world. According to Freedom House, 2019 was the 14th consecutive year of democratic backsliding, with 25 established democracies experiencing a net erosion of democracy.  

The only way to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 is to combine quarantines and social distancing measures with open communication through media channels to ensure people are safe, healthy, and informed with legitimate information. The best approach to handle misinformation and fake news is with global cooperation and coordination as well as with domestic transparency.

Dr. Chris J. Dolan is Professor of Political Science at Lebanon Valley College in Pennsylvania USA and Fulbright Scholar at the University of Prishtina in Kosovo. Dolan also serves as faculty director in the Center for European Studies at Maastricht University in the Netherlands and with the Center for Political Courage at the University of Prishtina He is the author of Obama and the Emergence of a Multipolar World Order (2018) and In War We Trust (2005) and co-author of the Presidency and Economic Policy (2009) and Striking First (2004).