Belarus, Russia, Ukraine: Between the common past and an uncertain future 🎬

Panelists:

  • MYKOLA KAPITONENKO, Expert in Foreign Policy at International Centre for Policy Studies (ICPS) and Associate Professor at the Institute of International Relations of Kyiv National Taras Shevchenko University

  • YULIA NIKITINA, Associate Professor of World Politics and Research Fellow at the Center for the Post-Soviet Studies at the Moscow State University of International Relations (MGIMO)

  • YAUHENI PREIHERMAN, Director, Minsk Dialogue Council on International Relations

 

Moderation:

  • MARYLIA HUSHCHA, research assistant at the IIP

 

Content:

Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union the narrative of three ‘Slavic brothers’ united by geography, history, culture and (as some would argue) language was widespread in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. The 2000s brought first clear fractures to this narrative, with the Orange Revolution and gas conflicts between Russia and Ukraine. The 2010s have seen a total breakup between Kyiv and Moscow, following the annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas region. Belarus, despite its close security ties with Russia, did not take sides in the conflict and instead acted as a neutral platform for dialogue between its two neighbors within the OSCE framework. Until recently, the political regime inside Belarus was considered stable. A turmoil swept the country three months ago, following the presidential elections that were largely believed to have been rigged. Mass protests continue until this day despite brutal repressions by security forces. While they have purely domestic causes, Russia’s support of Lukashenka and Ukrainian president’s remarks that new elections should be held in Belarus give this domestic conflict a geopolitical dimension.

With the war in Donbas still far from coming to an end, many uncertainties surrounding the political crisis in Belarus, and Russia’s growing assertiveness in what is becoming an increasingly polarized world, will the three ‘Slavic brothers’ live in peace with themselves and one another again?

Experts from Belarus, Russia and Ukraine will discuss this question by looking at the causes and circumstances of the political turbulence – or indeed, revolution – in Belarus today and in Ukraine seven years ago. They will discuss Russia’s role in both cases, Moscow’s perceptions of its two Western neighbors and geopolitical implications of the current developments on the region.