General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been scheduled for the first week of October this year. While there are still two months to go, an internationally-provoked crisis remains to be resolved. This does not sound that unusual, given the perennially “troubled” nature of the Western Balkans region. Many outsiders have grown accustomed to hearing about crises occurring several times a year throughout the Western Balkans, which include Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Albania. At present, there are two significant crises that are on the path to being resolved. The first concerns a new election law in Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the second arose “overnight” in Kosovo, when the Kosovar government attempted to implement a new rule for Serbian license plates and ID cards.
An internationally-provoked crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Last week, a new election law was proposed in Bosnia and Herzegovina by High Representative (HR) Christian Schmidt. For background, the position of the HR was established by the Dayton Peace Agreement in 1995, and its purpose is to oversee the implementation of the Agreement. The HR has significant powers over Bosnian politics, including veto powers and “Bonn” powers, which were intended to be used when nationalist politicians from any side obstruct the implementation of the Agreement. Today, these “special power” are still utilized by the HR, which provokes anger among all the country’s three constituent ethnic groups.
The latest proposal by the Office of the High Representative to change the election law just before the upcoming elections in October caused an uproar among Bosniak citizens and politicians, who interpreted the law as an act of discrimination. The law would impact several areas: electoral integrity, the functioning of the houses of Parliament, and the election of the leadership of the Federation as well as judges of the Federation’s Constitutional Court. One specific change would be that if the proportion of one of Bosnia’s constituent nations in any Federation canton is less than 3 per cent, the group will no longer have representatives in the House of Peoples of the Federation Parliament. This change would strengthen the Bosnian Croat HDZ party and would have a significant impact on every aspect of politics in the Federation, which could lead to blockades and a further breakdown in the functioning of the Federation.
There is a rumor that Croatia exerted pressure on the US and the UK – both countries support the HR’s proposed election law -- to convince the HR to implement the new law before the elections. Considering Croatia’s latest foreign policy positions, such as threatening to veto NATO membership for Sweden and Finland, one can argue that this rumor is far from implausible. Furthermore, Croatian President Zoran Milanovic and Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic (of the HDZ) openly support the HR’s proposal and are calling for the immediate implementation of the law. As a reminder, the Bosnian Croat HDZ party is directly linked to its mother party, the Croatian HDZ, which is currently the ruling party in Croatia. This is far from the first time that a neighboring country of Bosnia has tried to influence the country’s domestic politics. There have been countless occasions when either Serbia or Croatia has interfered in Bosnia’s domestic politics by openly supporting its respective ethnic group. This kind of “interference” damages the Dayton Peace Agreement and can easily ignite nationalist tensions that may eventually lead to a new conflict. Given that this time around it was the Office of the High Representative that was directly linked to the creation of this crisis, one can only hope that the international institutions that were created to preserve peace in Bosnia will continue to do their job fairly and avoid playing with fire.
Aleksandar Vucic: “If they are not ready to preserve peace, I am telling you: Serbia will win!”
Doesn’t this tone of statement sound familiar? More than 30 years ago, right before the beginning of the Yugoslav Wars, one could hear similar statements from Serbian politicians. Across the Balkans, politicians constantly feel the need to keep the nationalist spark alive – the only problem is that such sparks can easily ignite and turn into a fire that leads to war, horrors, and cruelty, all of which have haunted the region since 1991. With regional crises, officials from both sides -- Kosovo and Serbia -- gain political points within their respective populations. Almost every year, there is a “major” crisis between Serbia and Kosovo, and there are constant tensions and fears of a new war. After several days of nationalist and war-mongering rhetoric, both sides usually agree to step back and postpone whatever decision has caused the latest crisis. This time around, the decision by the Kosovar government to implement a new travel rule for Serbian citizens was the source of the crisis. From 1 August 2022, people who live in Northern Kosovo and have cars with Serbian license plates and Serbian ID cards would have been blocked from entering Kosovo. With this measure, the Kosovar government aims at forcing these citizens to obtain Kosovar license plates and ID cards. Officials in Belgrade gathered for several meetings, which concluded with Vucic stating that this was the most complex crisis that has occurred since the proclamation of Kosovo’s independence.
In his own recognizable style, Vucic held a press conference in which he talked about the seriousness of the situation and how one should be prepared for anything. He added: “If they [Kosovo] are not ready to preserve peace, I am telling you: Serbia will win!” There have not been many occasions in which Vucic has openly threatened Kosovo, but this was the clearest and most direct threat that he has made publicly in the last 10 years. In the end, the Kosovar government postponed the implementation of the new rule by 30 days. Even if the government of Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti imposes this new rule as a direct provocation to Serbia, there is absolutely no excuse for such war-mongering expressions by Serbian officials, especially not high officials like the President. Both Kosovar and Serbian officials misuse nationalistic rhetoric in order to provoke the other side and to gain political wins, but this time around, President Vucic went one step further.
Such expressions contributed to the horrors and crimes that took place across the region during the Yugoslav Wars. They indicate how Serbia continues to fight an intern battle with its own – in a certain way “unfortunate” - past. These statements also remind neighboring countries that they still cannot fully trust Serbia or consider it to be a guarantor of security and peace in the region. All this contributes to the image of Serbia being the “bad guy” in the region and damages even further Serbia’s reputation. This comes all at the cost of corrupt politicians who are securing their rule with all possible means.
Politicians across the region should not be allowed to create and take advantage of fake regional crises for their own political gain. Therefore, the promotion of reconciliation, regional cooperation, European values, and a common European future is of great importance for a more prosperous and secure future for the Western Balkans.
Last but not least, dear Mr. Vucic, if your goal is to secure peace in the region and the rights of the Serbian minority in Kosovo, this latest crisis and your respective reactions and actions are not contributing at all. It may sound like criticizing only the one side of this crisis and it probably is – but I prefer self-criticism. Before blaming the other side and looking upon their mistakes, one should first self-reflect. Perhaps, an approach like this could change the reputation Serbia has and even contribute to the solution of the Kosovo enigma?
Author Picture: NATO
Luka Čekić is a Project Assistant at the International Institute for Peace. He graduated from the German School of Athens and received his BA in Political Science from the University of Vienna. He is currently in his second year of master studies in Political Science (MA) at the University of Vienna. His areas of interest include International Politics and Relations, Nuclear Non-Proliferation, Disarmament and Arms Control and Western Balkans.