Belarus is now making headlines in the international media. It is however tragic that, similar to Ukraine six years ago, it began to be widely discussed in the West only after conflict, violence, and brutality erupted. After the presidential elections on August 9th, Belarusians took to the streets to demand a fair count of their votes. There are overwhelming arguments to be sure that elections results were blatantly falsified. As was expected, the Central Electoral Commission has preliminary declared victory for long-standing president Aliaksandar Lukashenka with 80% of the vote while acknowledging only 10% support for the popular oppositional candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. As was also largely expected, the security forces were deployed by the Belarusian authoritarian leader to suppress the peaceful demonstrations that started across the country in both cities and small towns. However, despite all the predictions made by analysts and observers of Belarus, the level of brutality and lawlessness that the police, special security units, and the army used against the protesters have been utterly shocking.
Background
Belarusian elections have never been free and fair since 1994. In that year, Aliaksandar Lukashenka won the presidential seat in the second round of elections, and, in the following years through a series of constitutional changes, persecution of opponents, and restrictions on civic freedoms, he built a ‘vertical system of power,’ where, as a famous joke runs, people cannot even ‘sort out potatoes’ without the president. Elections have been rigged ever since, and the support for the incumbent was hugely inflated (in every election cycle, Lukashenka received between 70% to 80% of votes). What changed this time?
A simple answer to this question would be the scale: the scale of falsifications and the scale of public discontent and protest. While in previous election cycles, even if the outcomes had not been rigged, Lukashenka would have received enough votes to win the race. The claims about his overwhelming popularity were instead of a symbolic nature, establishing an image – both for international and domestic consumption – of a strong leader. However, his popularity has plummeted in 2020. Apart from the unsustainable economy that has only survived through international loans and subsidies as well as the conflict over oil prices with Russia – serious as never before – the last straw was the government’s inept response to the covid-19 pandemic. The president openly ridiculed the disease, calling it a ‘psychosis’ and forbade individuals from wearing face masks in his presence. With hospitals and medical personnel overwhelmed with the number of covid-19 patients and official statistics underreporting the death toll, many Belarusians felt that they were deprived of their human dignity.
Course of elections
This year’s elections did not go according to the usual scenario from the very start. Even when the serious challengers of the incumbent were eliminated (Viktar Babaryka and Siarhey Tsikhanouski were jailed, and Valer Tsapkala was not registered as a candidate and subsequently left the country), their teams united behind a seemingly unlikely leader: Sviatlana Tsichanouskaya, a wife of the imprisoned vlogger who, by her own admission, did not want to be a politician. She entered the campaign and ran in her husband’s stead, promising to hold new elections in case she wins and release her husband from prison. Her team and their campaign were criticized for their lack of a proper political program or plan of action if the election outcome was rigged. Nevertheless, or rather because Tsichanouskaya had no political ambitions, her campaign resonated with many Belarusians who came out to support her in the tens of thousands all across the country.
These elections also differed from any previous in that they greatly mobilized the electorate. People stood in lines for hours to cast their vote, both within the country as well as abroad. Many, however, did not get to the ballot box before the polling stations were scheduled to close. Electoral commissions received orders directly from the authorities to slow down the election process, citing covid-19 as a reason to restrict the number of voters present in the polling station at one time. For the same reason, independent observers were not allowed inside polling stations either.
In the absence of independent observers, a mobile application was developed to conduct an alternative vote count. The government tried to block it. On the main election day and in subsequent days, it shut down the internet in all of Belarus.
Outcome and protests
Demonstrations started right after the polling stations closed on August 9th. Citizens took to the streets to peacefully demand a fair count of their votes. Many were waiting before their local electoral stations to find out official results on the same day. The electoral commissions consist of people who are directly dependent on the state (for example, employees of state enterprises and teachers) and are thus meant to secure the ‘desired outcome’ on the local level. Nevertheless, some decided to count votes fairly. At the end of the election day, they announced at their respective polling stations that Tsikhanouskaya had won. There were, however, not enough of them to delegitimize from ‘bottom up’ the preliminary results that favored Lukashenka and were announced by the Central Electoral Commission. As a leaked recording revealed, members of the commissions that announced the victory of Tsikhanouskaya are now being pressed by high-ranking officials to do a ‘recount’.
The security forces reacted with brutal force against the peaceful demonstrations, beating people up, shooting with rubber bullets, and using flash grenades to disperse the crowd. So far, two deaths have been confirmed. Many sustained serious injuries and are now in emergency rooms in hospitals. The internet was blocked for three days, depriving people of information about what is happening in the rest of the country or even on the other side of their own city and making any coordination or news reporting more difficult. It nevertheless did not stop the protest movement. Protests have continued every night since the main election day. They are happening all across the country. Workers at state enterprises went on strike and organized solidarity demonstrations. Women and medical personnel also organized additional campaigns where they stand in ‘solidarity chains,’ demanding the police to stop the violence.
International reaction
China and Russia were first to recognize Lukashenka’s victory. Russia’s quick reaction is especially concerning. It once again indicates that the regime in Belarus is ready to use any means to suppress the ongoing demonstrations and has probably assured the Kremlin that the situation is under control. The European Union and the United States have condemned the violence in the country but have gone no further thus far. A special meeting on August 14th will convene EU member state representatives to discuss the situation in Belarus. Many civil society groups in the country are advocating that the West should not recognize the election results and that political and economic sanctions should be introduced against Lukashenka and his loyalists. It is unclear whether the EU will manage to find a consensus on the sanctions issue, as Hungary has already announced it would be against such a policy[1]. Its prime minister, Viktor Orban, paid a visit to Belarus just two months ago, advocating for the lifting of all remaining sanctions upon his return to Budapest.
What is next?
Regardless of whether Lukashenka manages to stay in office or not, his overwhelming power is over. Belarus is entering a tumultuous period in its history in which a dictator with no popular support can rule by relying purely on the use of force and fear. If Lukashenka goes, it is unclear how the transition period would develop. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who has been a symbol of the protest movement rather than its leader, left Belarus in fear of persecution of her and her family. Her return would be crucial for new elections to be announced. Who would run the country in the meantime is unclear, as well as whether those people would be perceived as legitimate. How foreign actors, especially Russia, will act under this scenario represents another big uncertainty and potential danger.
If anything slightly positive can be found in the current situation, it is the sense of solidarity among Belarusians. It can be seen in the self-organization and mutual assistance taking place during the protests, when people living close to demonstration spots in the cities hide protesters in their houses and provide water and medicine; when priests let those running from the police enter the church; and when doctors and nurses self-organize into volunteer brigades to treat the wounded. Even before the elections, crowdfunding campaigns collected thousands of euros to pay unfairly imposed fines on demonstrators. They have now collected hundreds of thousands, if not millions. For the almost thirty years since its independence, Belarus has struggled to create a strong unifying national identity. However sad the current circumstances are, it may be that it has finally found one.
[1] https://dailynewshungary.com/hungary-to-prevent-eu-sanctions-against-belarus/
Marylia Hushcha is a Research Assistant at the International Institute for Peace in Vienna and is a board member of Think Tank Ponto. She previously worked at Pontis Foundation in Slovakia, where she managed a capacity-building project for NGOs in Russia. Maryia has completed training and fellowship programmes at the United Nations Office in Belarus, the European Academy of Diplomacy in Warsaw, and the University of San Diego. She holds a Master’s degree in European Studies from Comenius University in Bratislava.