The US military is reducing its military exercises in Europe because of the Covid-19 pandemic. Is Russia becoming less of a threat to the US and NATO than the pandemic? A large part of NATO’s exercises are designed to improve NATO’s internal cohesiveness and coordination. They are not directly related to external threats. Therefore, they have a strong autistic dimension and would continue even if external enemies disappeared and NATO didn’t know about it. The same is true for NATO’s defense expenditures. Russia’s military expenditures are only eight percent of those of NATO. If Germany spent two percent of its GDP on defense, as the US and NATO request, it would exceed Russia’s defense expenditures. There is no direct proportionality between defense spending and threat analysis. The expenditures tell more about NATO’s internal burden-sharing than about external threats. Fighting Covid-19 will be designed to enhance NATO’s capabilities in dealing with a different challenge. Pandemics have played a minor role or have been ignored in doctrines and strategies of NATO and its member states as a challenge altogether, or at least thus far.
The perception of NATO and the US of Russia will probably not change after the pandemic weakens or ends. Mainstream media in the West, which function as a seismograph, already accuse Russia of using the virus to spread disinformation and downplay Russia’s aid to Italy. To use a historic analogy, the last worldwide pandemic in 1918-1919 did not improve great power relations. It is possible, however, that a different positive narrative about Russia’s help could prevail, as the EU, including the European Central Bank, failed to provide adequate aid not only to Italy and Spain but also to Africa. China and Russia stepped in and have filled this void to some extent. The US was very successful, for example, in building a very positive image about the Marshall Plan after World War II.
Security relations between NATO and Russia will not change much, as the security establishments on both sides might not want it. They are eager to preserve their own kingdoms. However, we can expect a thaw on other levels, i.e. science, research, technology, academics, and think tanks, but also in companies that are doing common research. In these areas, cooperation will be indispensable, as the fight against the global pandemic demonstrates. That is of significant importance, and over time it could also enhance political and security relations between the West (including NATO members) and Russia.
Univ. Prof. Dr. Heinz Gärtner is a lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the University of Vienna and at Danube University. He was academic director of the Austrian Institute for International Affairs. He has held various Fulbright Fellowships and the Austrian Chair at Stanford University. He was Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation Fellow at the Johns Hopkins University in Washington DC. Among other things, Gärtner chairs the Strategy and Security advisory board of the Austrian Armed Forces and the Advisory Board of the International Institute for Peace (IIP) in Vienna. He has published widely on international security, nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament, US foreign policy, geopolitics, Iran, and the Middle East.