Africa 2020: Europe's Most Challenging Neighbor

Africa is Europe’s most exciting, fascinating, dangerous, promising, and all-around challenging neighbor. Even fierce critics of colonialism might understand the interest of former colonialists in the “dark continent.” Instead of building connections on the basis of mutual interests and equality, colonial powers and their representatives enslaved many Africans and promoted their own narrow-minded economic, financial, and political interests. Direct colonialism is over, but many forms of neocolonialism prevail. And as with classical colonialism, local leaders today work in close cooperation with foreign powers to exploit their own people.

The African princess

The most notable person today who exemplifies this type of connection is Isabel dos Santos, the daughter of the former long-time president of Angola, José Eduardo dos Santos. Known as the “African princess” or “Daddy’s Girl,” dos Santos is the richest woman in Africa and is responsible for stealing much of Angola’s wealth. According to recent reports — made public by “LuandaLeaks” – she took a significant cut of Angola’s wealth, acquired stakes in the country’s diamond exports, its dominant mobile phone company, two of its banks, and its biggest cement maker, and formed a partnership with the state oil giant to buy into Portugal’s largest petroleum company. Much of this could not have happened without the close cooperation of foreign companies in Portugal and the Netherlands and “advice” from individuals such as Ernst Welteke, former president of the German Bundesbank — according to LuandaLeaks. In the meantime, the new Angolan president – who was a minister under President dos Santos – is fighting against the corrupt system of the dos Santos family. It has become very clear that this corrupt system and the related money laundering simply could not have taken place without the direct support of foreign patrons.

In an article in Africa is a Country, Claudia Gastrow writes: “As with the Mozambican debt scandal, which was enabled by the collusion of Mozambican state officials with bankers at Credit Swiss among others, LuandaLeaks emphasize what many already know: ‘African corruption’ is only African as regards its victims, its perpetrators are institutions and individuals from across the globe who are willing to loot without conscience as they watch their offshore accounts grow.” Necessarily, these developments inside Angola and the external connections to corruption and money laundering were already well-known by many observers. In the meantime, one of the managers of a Portuguese private bank of which dos Santos owns 42% has been found dead. The board of directors recently announced its decision to “terminate the commercial relationship with entities controlled by the universe of the shareholder Isabel dos Santos and people closely related to it.” It seems they have gotten “cold feet.”

A positive signal against impunity for African tycoons who invest their dubious fortunes in Europe was recently given by a French appeals court that upheld a lower court ruling against Teodorin Obiang ordering the seizure of his assets in France. Obiang is the son of the long-time president of Equatorial Guinea (since 1979), who named his son also as his deputy. The case against Obiang was triggered by Transparency International, and some of the money embezzled by Obiang will ultimately be directed to social projects in Equatorial Guinea. The verdict sends an important signal against the corruption and impunity of leaders who use their relations with European financial and business institutions to store their ill-gotten gains in Europe. (Relatedly, it is of note that Equatoguinean President Teodoro Obiang recently contributed $2m to China in support for combating the Coronavirus outbreak!) 

African resources and Europe

Nevertheless, the critical connections between global actors — including EU countries — and Africa are not only those of dubious and criminal activities but also of a more systemic kind. The extraction of rare earth and critical metals is very often characterized by inhuman working conditions, including child labour. Only recently, a human rights group accused several companies of tolerating child labour in cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – the same cobalt that is used for smartphones and electric vehicles. Our transition from cars using hydrocarbons to electric vehicles may therefore not be as clean as many argue. In addition, cobalt also comes also from unregulated “artisanal” mines that can be found across the Sahel, especially for gold. These illegal and individual mining activities can bring profit to the concerned entrepreneurs who come partly from Europe or are in connection with European actors. But all too often, the profits go toward supporting paramilitary groups. In addition, these uncontrolled mining activities contribute to polluting the environment.  

Even traditional and legal activities promoted by European consumers can have a disastrous effect on Africa’s environment. One example is the global chocolate industry’s lobbying to extend the cultivation of cacao beans. In spite of agreements signed by global chocolate makers to eliminate child labour, the US Department of Labor found that the number of children working on cocoa farms is increasing. The Financial Times recently wrote: “As if that were not enough, cocoa farming has also been linked to rampant deforestation, particularly in Ivory Coast. Its cocoa production has nearly doubled to 2m tonnes over the past decade as farmers clear the new forest land.”

Only recently – in part due to increased consumer interest in product origins – the industry and the African countries concerned have begun thinking about the sustainability of the cacao industry. However, progress is slow and mostly concerns niche chocolate companies. In addition, although Ghana has sought to convince companies to grind cocoa beans and produce chocolate domestically, it does not have a sizable dairy industry and would have to import milk. The modernization and industrialization of the primary economy thus requires a variety of measures and steps to succeed. African countries are also seeking to reevaluate domestic coffee production. Ethiopia, for example, aims to promote tourism around coffee and coffee plantations. In short, the resources of African countries should primarily be used for the benefit of their own populations and not for producers or consumers outside Africa who simply have more financial power.

One positive step forward has been the rise of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) indicators to measure sustainable business; ESG indicators have had a particularly significant impact on the mining industry. In the recent Investing in African Mining conference in Cape Town, some important promises were made by the mining industry to develop more socially responsible and sustainable ways of extraction and production. We will have to hope that the industry will carry through on its promises.  

The issue of decolonization

In recent years – due to comprehensive studies on colonialism and the question of decolonization – we can observe a genuine debate about the long-term effects of colonialism. Studies have demonstrated that the exploitation of “Third World” resources transformed traditional economies focused on agriculture into “plantation” economies to the benefit of the colonial powers and consumers in Europe, the US, and elsewhere. Colonialism did not bring about a genuine modernization of local means of production and consumption. Instead, countries in Africa and elsewhere were driven by the interests of foreign producers and consumers. Even today, Africa is seen primarily as a source of highly sought-after resources, from oil and gas to rare earth and metals. And unfortunately – as in the past – local leaders are often eager to help and support this policy of exploitation, as long as they can profit from it. Thus, decolonization not only concerns a new and more equitable system of international relations but also demands domestic changes within the countries of the “North” and “South.”

Many authors of colonial studies argue either for new methods or a return to traditional modes of economic activity. This is especially true for agriculture, and there are many good reasons to concentrate on domestic demand and markets and less on exports. However, given past changes and existing structures, that may not be so easy. Digital instruments could offer support and tools to smaller, decentralized producers to shift toward domestic markets beyond their immediate reach. Digitalization could modernize economies without necessarily destroying traditional patterns of production, settlement, and habitation. Suffice it to say, it should not be the West or Europe that should lead the way. But we should create and promote the potential of African societies to develop their own patterns of progress within an altered system of globalization. What is at stake is not de-globalization but a more balanced project of globalization that gives sufficient space for local, sustainable, and equitable development.

Common security interest – the Sahel and Libya

For Europe and Africa, security is of special importance but is also difficult to maintain and/or reestablish. In this respect, the combat against the continuing and growing threat of terrorism, especially in the Sahel, must be watched with growing concern. It would be naive to fight against terrorism with only economic and social tools. But it is also naive and shortsighted to rely predominantly on military means. Very often, one-sided support for certain ethnic or religious groups by the ruling powers drives the other neglected groups into the hands of terrorists. A special issue edited by the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence published in 2014 poses the question: “How does a state maintain its claim to legitimacy when it appears unable to ensure the delivery of basic public services? Even more to the point, how does a state build and sustain its claim to legitimacy when it is perceived, at least by some segments of society to be actively working to favor particular religious, ethnic or class-based interests; or when the use of discourses of ‘terrorism’ and ‘counter-terrorism’ are themselves interpreted by substantial segments of the population as simply a further extension and abuse of state power?”

The concentration on military activities within the framework of the cooperation of the G5 Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger) and several EU countries, notably France, must therefore be viewed critically – especially as France is particularly interested in the uranium resources of countries such as Niger. On the one hand, one can argue that France alone is taking the threat of terrorism seriously and is left alone by other EU states and progressively by the US. On the other hand, some experts express doubts that the military engagement of “Operation Barkhane” is strong enough to combat terrorism and prevent the establishment of an Islamic State in the Sahel. 

Although they promised at a summit meeting in January to boost their military activities, many African leaders know that the presence of soldiers of former colonial powers on their countries’ soil is not welcome by the population. However, these same leaders rely on this foreign support. The countries of the Sahel are especially poor and have a long way to go reach the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). That means that their economic, social, and political development is rather fragile, and many problems are severely neglected. As most financial resources are directed to the military or lost to corruption, there are too few resources going to improving the living conditions of ordinary citizens. France is now demanding even more military activities without more civil spending.

In the meantime, the leader of Mali has announced that his government will open negotiations with the Islamists. Such talks can be helpful, but they can only succeed and bring an end to terrorism if the government is more responsive to the basic demands and interests of its citizens. Otherwise they may simply strengthen the Islamists and create an authoritarian and fundamentalist system to control citizens. 

The other major security issue in Africa that concerns Europe is Libya. Irrespective of the international recognition of the Libyan government in Tripoli, several countries, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Russia, support General Khalifa Haftar, who aims to overthrow the UN-backed government. France too has shown sympathy for Haftar, partly because it fears the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Libyan government. Conversely, Turkey is providing military support to the UN-backed government, partly because it supports the Muslim Brotherhood and partly because it wants an alliance with Libya to oppose the partnership of Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt on oil and gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

After preliminary talks in Moscow, the German government under Chancellor Angela Merkel invited the different factions in Libya and major foreign powers to Berlin to seek a truce and boost cooperation between the different forces. In particular, the meeting aimed to halt the delivery of weapons to both sides. It is too early to evaluate the results of the meeting in Berlin and a recent UN Security Council resolution, but there are many skeptical observers who doubt the readiness of Libyan and foreign forces to seek peace.

Over and over, African leaders have insisted that they themselves must deal with conflicts inside Africa. Just recently at the annual meeting of the African Union in Addis Ababa, the call for intra-African solutions was repeated – concerning both Libya and the Sahel. Naturally, that would require that foreign powers do not intervene and use such conflicts for their own purposes, as is particularly evident in Libya.   

Security and the environment

There are also other security issues of mutual interest between Europe and Africa in relation to natural resources and environmental degradation. Already one can witness desertification as well as forthcoming floods in coastal areas, especially in West Africa. Depending on the temperature rise, one can expect a reduction in crop yields, reduced agricultural and labour productivity, damage to the health of citizens, and more. In addition to droughts, we will have to expect serious problems in some coastal areas. Making matters worse, many of these endangered low elevation zones have high population growth rates and high rates of urbanization, for example in Nigeria, Senegal, and Benin. As a result, the flooding of these areas is likely to result in significant humanitarian disasters.  

As the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) recently stated: “Africa is responsible for a mere four per cent of global CO2 emissions. Yet, no continent is equally affected by the double burden of climate change and political fragility as Africa…57 per cent of the countries facing the highest double burden of climate change and political fragility are located in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Consequently, SIPRI argues for a Special Envoy for Climate Change and Security, a demand which should be strongly supported by the EU.    

What we see in addition to the dangerous effects of climate change are still unresolved conflicts over scarce resources such as water in the national policies of neighboring countries. The biggest and most acute issue is the building of the Nile dam (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam) in Ethiopia. The filling of the basin – if it is done in a relatively short timeframe – would create enormous difficulties for Egypt and Egyptian farmers. Several meetings between Ethiopian, Sudanese, and Egyptian representatives to find an agreement on the pace of filling the basin have taken place and there was readiness to compromise from the Ethiopian side, but no final agreement has yet be found. However, many experts make it clear that the biggest and fundamental cause for water shortage is climate change: the frequency of hotter and drier years could increase by a factor of two to three, according to a study by Dartmouth College in New Hampshire.

In addition, the catastrophic invasion of locusts that is sweeping across East Africa today may have ecological causes. In this case, the unusual amount of rain resulting from the high number of cyclones over the Indian Ocean could have promoted the growth and survival of many more locusts over last winter. 

Economic development and migration to Europe

According to the World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund, GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will be stronger than in advanced economies in 2020 and 2021. Unfortunately, the biggest economies – Nigeria and South Africa – will have much weaker growth rates. Their GDP growth will be lower than their respective population growth rates. Africa’s population continues to grow, and Africa already has the youngest population in the world, with a median age of 19,7 years in comparison to 30,6 years for Asia and 41,7 years for Europe. Considering the demographic outlook of Europe, it is grotesque that migration to Europe is seen principally as a threat.

One answer to this challenge is to organize a more effective system of circular migration. In the framework of such a system, Africans could come to Europe to study and seek training in areas where they would be of use both for Europe and their own countries. Such a system would establish new and long-term economic and personal links, even after Africans return to their countries and secure decent jobs. Needless to say, such a system can only work if African leaders work to create new jobs and improve living conditions at home. Instead of many leaders solely thinking about prolonging their terms in office, they should instead give young people a chance and implement the African Union Youth Charter.

Creating employment for young Africans will thus primarily be the task of African leaders. They must create the conditions for investment that creates jobs. They must support agricultural development that produces jobs and sufficient food for their own people. And they must build the necessary peace and stability to allow sufficient economic growth. The “African Continental Free Trade Agreement,” which will come into effect in a few months, is one of the ways to promote intra-African trade. 29 countries, which is more than 50% of African countries, have already ratified the treaty. Unfortunately, some of the bigger countries, including Nigeria – the biggest African market – and the DRC are not yet part of the agreement. Still, the free trade zone already comprises 404 million people and will be organized and managed by the existing regional economic blocs. One can hope for a strong boost in intra-African trade in the coming years. However, progress in Africa will also require proactive domestic policies by individual countries and governments to promote sustainable economic development.

Rwanda: a model country?

One country that is on a good path forward is Rwanda. After the horrors of the genocide that was widely neglected by the EU and global leaders, President Paul Kagame led the country through an innovative reconciliation process and fostered the country’s economic development. Today Rwanda presents a model for other African countries in progressively implementing the SDGs. As President Kagame said recently in an interview: “It is frustrating in the sense that Africa has almost everything: the people, the resources, but the resources remain buried somewhere for others to add value,” and Africans remain poor and insecure. Unfortunately, Rwanda has conflicts with some of its neighbors, but it also cooperates others, for example building a new high-speed rail connection to the port of Dar es Salaam together with Tanzania.

In addition, Rwanda – as some other African countries – actively promotes digitalization for economic as well as social development. Where there is no sufficient traditional infrastructure to easily reach the periphery, the digital delivery of goods and services may be vital for the relevant populations. In some fields, such as the telecommunications sector, digitalization is more advanced in some African countries than in Western countries.

It is nevertheless true that President Kagame is an authoritarian leader and has not always acted democratically; he should finally prepare for a peaceful and orderly transition of power. But what is truly extraordinary was the ability of this president and many Rwandans to unite their country after a horrific genocide and develop a modern, viable economy. This double task likely required some strength and authoritarian rule in the past. But Rwanda is now sufficiently stable to combine these efforts and achievements with democracy and new leadership after the next presidential election. It would be good for the country itself and serve as a positive example for other African countries.

Competition of global powers inside Africa

Africa is a victim and/or beneficiary of the new “Scramble for Africa,” the ongoing competition for influence and access to the resources needed for economic development. The EU cannot and should not avoid entering the competition. Nevertheless, the EU must put force a different strategy and approach – not only because European powers have been often responsible for violations of human rights and economic exploitation on the continent in the past. But as Africa’s neighbor, the EU should work on fostering a productive neighborhood of mutual benefit. An aging continent on one side and a continent with a growing population on the other could form an alliance for future employment, for example in the framework of circular migration. They could share their countless intellectual and material resources. And they could form a partnership to combat climate change and work toward decarbonization. They should also work together to promote democracy and human rights.


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Dr. Hannes Swoboda, President of the International Institute for Peace (IP), started his career in urban politics in Vienna and was elected member of the European Parliament in 1996. He was Vice President of the Social Democrat Group until 2012 und then President until 2014. He was particularly engaged in foreign, enlargement, and neighborhood policies. Swoboda is also President of the Vienna Institute for International Economics, the Centre of Architecture, the University for Applied Science - Campus Vienna, and the Sir Peter Ustinov Institute.