News
On November 29, 2021 – the day of this webinar - the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement (JCPOA) will resume in Vienna after the US left it 2018 unilaterally. Much of the stability in the Middle East will depend on the success of these talks. This webinar will put these talks into a wider regional geopolitical context and look at Europe’s role.
All parties to the JCPOA (China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia, United Kingdom and the USA) support in principle a revival of the JCPOA. All would benefit. The fear of nuclear proliferation would be stopped and economic relations especially of the European countries with Iran (trade and investment) would improve.
The European security system is in deep crisis, facing difficult times, major challenges, and a myriad of hybrid threats: armed or frozen conflicts in the EU’s Eastern and Southern neighborhood, the global migration crisis, systemic terrorism, pervasive cyber threats, and the return of the forgotten conflict with Russia. All these developments are taking place against the backdrop of profound changes in the international order, the rise of Asia, and a redefinition of the global role of the USA.
Die Gründung des neuen Bündnisses Aukus zwischen den USA, Großbritannien und Australien wurde von internationalen Kommentatoren vor allem aus Sicht des geplatzten Verkaufs französischer U-Boote an Australien betrachtet. Hinter dem Waffengeschäft steht aber eine viel weitreichendere Entscheidung. Aukus ist Teil einer globalen Bündnispolitik der USA gegenüber China. Schon im Februar stellte US-Präsident Joe Biden klar: "Kein Land der Welt kann mit uns gleichziehen, nicht China noch irgendein anderes Land." Zu diesem Zweck soll auch eine "Allianz von Demokratien" gegen die Autokratien dieser Welt auf die Beine gestellt werden. Biden geht es dabei primär um China. Er beeilte sich daher auch zu betonen, Frankreich sei ja auch für seine asiatisch-pazifische Strategie wichtig. Er scheut sich aber auch nicht, autoritäre Regierungen wie das kommunistische Vietnam oder die Philippinen für sie zu gewinnen.
The undignified withdrawal of NATO from Afghanistan and the takeover by the Taliban will also have severe repercussions for Europe and its security. The threat of islamist terrorism may further rise. Many more Afghans will try to flee from the Taliban regime to neighbouring countries, but also to Europe. The events made also clear – yet for another time – that the EU lacks strategic autonomy and depends on US capabilities and leadership. When Washington acts against European interests especially on peace and security matters, the EU often lacks the will and means to pursue its own foreign and security policy.
In the light of the most recent developments in Afghanistan and the fall of the Ghani Government, the topic of this book talk is even more relevant today. "What is happening in Afghanistan is [in] one way an extension of the old geopolitical rivalries," Ambassador Andisha says. His talk will be addressing the current situation from an academic and diplomatic viewpoint.
